[US Midterm Elections] 'Pro-Trump' McCarthy Likely Next House Speaker... Expected Future Moves

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] In the November 8 midterm elections that reshaped the power of the U.S. Congress, the Republican Party secured the majority in the House of Representatives, making House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, known for his pro-Trump stance, the leading candidate for the next Speaker of the House. If he, often called the so-called 'Trump Bodyguard,' assumes the position of Speaker, the third highest-ranking office in U.S. power hierarchy, a clear political check against the Joe Biden administration at the congressional level is expected. However, since the anticipated Republican red wave did not materialize in this election, there are also views that McCarthy's future moves may be limited.

◆Evaluated as Trump’s Bodyguard...Anticipated Check on Biden Administration

According to U.S. CNN and others on the 9th (local time), McCarthy sent a letter to the newly elected House members in the afternoon declaring his intention to run for Speaker and requesting their support. He has officially begun his move toward the Speakership.

The Speaker of the U.S. House is elected through a majority party internal election process and will be chosen on January 3 next year when the 118th Congress begins. The upcoming Republican leadership election next week is considered the first step for this. Currently, McCarthy is regarded as having no competitors within the Republican Party. The Speaker, ranking third in U.S. power after the President and Vice President, is the de facto representative of the U.S. Congress. The Speaker leads agenda-setting within Congress and plays a role in cooperating with and checking the government.

If pro-Trump McCarthy becomes Speaker, a strong check targeting the Biden administration is expected. He actively blocked the impeachment proceedings against former President Trump, playing a significant role as the 'Trump Bodyguard.' After the 2020 presidential election, he actively supported efforts to contest the election results. During the unprecedented attack on the U.S. Capitol last year, he blocked attempts to impeach former President Trump, reaffirming his pro-Trump stance. This led to backlash within the party, especially from anti-Trump factions, accusing McCarthy of turning the Republican Party into the 'Trump Party.'

Even before this midterm election, McCarthy showed a hardline stance by suggesting the possibility of pursuing impeachment against President Joe Biden. His first proposed bill is the Border Security Act, aiming to overhaul the Democratic Party’s immigration policies. Additionally, regarding large-scale aid to Ukraine, he indicated that if the Republicans win the midterms, they would "never give a blank check," signaling a shift in policy approach.

He also hinted at holding accountable issues surrounding President Biden’s second son Hunter Biden and the spread of COVID-19. Earlier, the policy agenda announced by McCarthy and other House Republicans, titled 'Commitment to America,' focused on four pillars: a strong economy, a safe nation, a future based on freedom, and responsible government. Economically, it favors small government, free markets, and low taxes. This has led some to compare him to former Speaker Newt Gingrich, who opposed the Clinton administration.

This is not McCarthy’s first attempt at the Speakership. Born in 1965, he entered Washington politics after serving in the California State Assembly, a Democratic stronghold, and was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2006 with over 70% of the vote. Since then, he has held key positions within the House, including Republican Whip, Majority Leader, and Minority Leader.

However, when he challenged the vacant Speakership in 2015 following John Boehner’s resignation, he had to withdraw from the race due to a 'verbal controversy.' He was criticized for stating that the Republican-led House Benghazi Committee was effectively targeting then-Democratic presidential candidate and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Although McCarthy apologized, the damage was difficult to repair. Ultimately, the Speakership went to Paul Ryan, who had been the vice-presidential candidate in the 2012 election.

Unlike Ryan, who maintained a tense relationship with then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in 2016, McCarthy showed a pro-Trump approach. He aimed for the Speakership vacancy created by Trump’s victory and Ryan’s retirement. However, when anti-Trump sentiment surged in the 2018 midterms and Democrats won, McCarthy had to settle for Minority Leader.

◆Voter Support Falls Short of Republican Expectations... "McCarthy May Have to Make More Concessions"

However, many analyses suggest that McCarthy’s path to leading Congress as Speaker will not be as easy as initially expected.

CNN reported that McCarthy has been calling newly elected House members since the day before, attempting to consolidate votes. This is a consequence of the Republicans failing to widen the gap significantly against the Democrats, contrary to expectations. To become Speaker, a majority of 218 votes is required. If Republicans maintain a slim majority, concerns about defections within the party are inevitable. Local media foresee that conservative groups such as the House Freedom Caucus may obstruct McCarthy.

McCarthy, who had hoped for a big House victory, gave a speech in Washington DC after his win was confirmed at 2 a.m. that day but did not declare a decisive victory. He only said, "By tomorrow morning, we will be the majority, and Nancy Pelosi will be the Minority Leader."

Politico reported, "McCarthy delayed his victory speech until 2 a.m. when many attendees had already left," adding, "The speech was brief because the majority in the House was not yet confirmed." The Los Angeles Times also reported, "Although McCarthy is expected to be the next Speaker, there was little to celebrate as the Republicans confirmed disappointing nationwide results and the anticipated red wave did not appear."

Representative Thomas Massie said, "I think McCarthy will eventually become Speaker," but evaluated the November 8 midterm results as "showing that he may have to make more concessions." Former Representative Fred Upton suggested, "There are several major storms he will have to navigate early in 2023, and he will be a minority majority," hinting at congressional conflicts over government spending and debt. He added, "Whether it’s the moderates or the Freedom Caucus blocking him, it could be very difficult. This will be an early test for his Speakership."