[News Terms] US-Russia Resume Negotiations on New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, New START

World's Top 2 Nuclear Powers, USA and Russia
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North Korea May Use Excuse to Enhance Nuclear Forces

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] The United States and Russia, the world's two largest nuclear powers, have agreed to resume discussions on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), a nuclear arms control agreement between the two countries. Attention is focused on whether the momentum for nuclear arms reduction among major powers, which was shaken by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, can be restored.

If the negotiation table between the U.S. and Russia, which have turned their backs on each other for over a year, collapses, there is a high risk that not only China but also South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan will be drawn into a 'nuclear arms race.' Since North Korea could also accelerate its nuclear arsenal buildup under this pretext, the resumption of negotiations between the two countries is regarded as an encouraging signal for regional stability.

New START, continuing the legacy of START severed by the U.S. and Soviet Union

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia [Image source=Yonhap News]

According to Reuters and others on the 8th (local time), Ned Price, spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, stated at a press briefing that the Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC), which handles matters related to the New START agreement, will be convened soon, and that the U.S. and Russia have agreed to resume negotiations. The BCC is originally convened twice a year but had not scheduled any meetings for over a year since October last year.

To understand New START, one must go back to the end of the Cold War era. In the past, the U.S. and the former Soviet Union signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) in July 1991, agreeing to reduce nuclear warheads and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Nearly 20 years later, in April 2010, then U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a new comprehensive nuclear arms reduction agreement, named 'New START' to continue the legacy of START.

Enforced in February 2011, this agreement aims to reduce the number of deployed nuclear warheads to fewer than 1,550 and limit the number of ICBMs, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers to fewer than 700.

The treaty was signed for a 10-year term, with a clause allowing a 5-year extension if both parties agree. The U.S. and Russia narrowly agreed to extend New START for five years in February last year, just before the treaty's expiration, but the extension treaty excluded restrictions on Russia's new weapons. A notable limitation was the failure to include China, the world's third-largest nuclear power, in the negotiations.

'Turning away' of the U.S. and Russia due to the 'Ukraine invasion'

Russian reservists mobilized under the draft are receiving training at the Rostov-on-Don training ground in southern Russia. [Image source=Yonhap News]

The explicit trigger for the split between the two countries over nuclear arms reduction is Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has continued since February this year.

Initially, the U.S. and Russia regularly inspected each other's nuclear facilities under the New START agreement. However, these activities were temporarily suspended from March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In August this year, U.S. President Joe Biden suddenly proposed new nuclear arms control negotiations to replace the New START agreement. He also argued that China should be included at the negotiation table.

However, Russia took a confrontational stance by announcing a temporary suspension of inspections of nuclear facilities. While expressing willingness to negotiate a new nuclear arms reduction agreement, Russian authorities stated they were displeased with the U.S.'s unilateral demands. Behind Russia's dissatisfaction was the situation where Russian aircraft were denied passage through U.S. and European airspace due to sanctions related to the Ukraine invasion.

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine
[Photo by Yonhap News]

As the Ukraine invasion did not proceed as planned, Russia began claiming that Ukraine intended to use a dirty bomb. A dirty bomb is a conventional explosive combined with nuclear material; although less powerful than a nuclear bomb, it is an inhumane weapon capable of causing widespread radioactive contamination.

Based on this, Russia notified the U.S. of plans to conduct 'Grom' (Thunder), a large-scale nuclear war exercise, and last month held a regular nuclear drill under the observation of President Vladimir Putin. Notably, the Russian Ministry of Defense publicly displayed launches of Iskander tactical ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), effectively staging a show of force.

Although an annual exercise, some speculated that Russia might be using this drill as a pretext for moving nuclear weapons. As relations between the two powers rapidly deteriorated, prospects for further extension of New START became uncertain, and concerns grew that Russia was fabricating the claim of Ukraine's use of a dirty bomb to justify nuclear weapon use.

President Putin stated, "We have no intention of using nuclear weapons against Ukraine," but consistently showcased nuclear weapons and mentioned the possibility of nuclear war and the outbreak of World War III. President Biden also engaged in this nuclear standoff, warning that Russia would face 'catastrophic consequences' if it used nuclear weapons in any form.

U.S. and Russia exchanging deterrence and threats, will they find a breakthrough?

President Joe Biden of the United States [Photo by Yonhap News]

If the momentum for nuclear arms reduction between major powers like the U.S. and Russia falters, the global nuclear non-proliferation regime will be threatened. If the U.S., Russia, or even China abandon existing nuclear arms reduction agreements and pursue nuclear arsenal enhancement, the rationale to deter non-nuclear states from acquiring nuclear weapons will disappear.

The encouraging point is that the U.S., reportedly having made contact with the Russian government behind the scenes recently, has officially declared the resumption of New START negotiations. Local media suggest that despite President Putin's nuclear threats related to the Ukraine war, the Russian government's continued interest in nuclear arms control treaties is viewed positively by U.S. authorities as a sign of change.

However, challenges remain. Russia has expressed willingness to discuss the re-extension of New START, but the U.S. considers the resumption of on-site inspections of nuclear facilities a prerequisite for negotiations. Russia is likely to again condition this on lifting the denial of airspace passage for its aircraft. It remains to be seen under what conditions the two countries will conduct negotiations.

The specific date and location of the meeting have not been disclosed. However, since Russia no longer regards Switzerland, the traditional meeting place, as a neutral country, there is speculation that the next meeting will be held in Cairo, the capital of Egypt.