Data Utilization... Need for Preemptive Prediction and Response to Population Density
Order Management Must Be Specified by Law Even Without Organizers
[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Sehee] Following the Itaewon tragedy, there are increasing calls to proactively respond to events expected to have large crowds by predicting population density. Experts advise predicting crowd density based on risk factors such as time and location, and legislating so that order can be managed even without an organizer.
On the 4th, Lee Seung-gyu, president of the Korea Safety Experts Association, said, "It should be possible to predict latent crowd density by utilizing existing data such as from previous years," adding, "While uniform numbers are important, it is even more crucial to analyze crowd density specifically by usage time and location to focus management on areas where more people gather, thereby reducing the risk of accidents."
In fact, during the Itaewon crush disaster, about 300 people were packed into a space measuring approximately 18.24㎡ (5.5 pyeong) with a length of 5.7 cm and a width of 3.2 m, resulting in an extreme situation of 16 people per 1㎡. According to Seoul Open Data, Itaewon sees crowds gathering between 9 and 10 p.m. on holidays. Even by using only prior data, it would have been possible to predict that people would gather at that place and time.
Lee Jun-won, professor at Soongsil University Graduate School of Safety Convergence, emphasized, "Crowds should not have gathered to such an extent in the first place. If tens of thousands of people gather in a dangerous situation, there should have been manuals or guidelines." He added, "There is a need to reorganize our society’s safety management system by integrating science and technology, such as using smart safety technologies, and it is time for the public to establish a mature safety culture."
Sharp criticism was also raised regarding the ‘passing the buck’ style of responsibility among various related agencies. Currently, both Yongsan District Office and the police claim that the multiple Halloween events held around Itaewon do not qualify as local festivals subject to safety management plan establishment and implementation by local governments or police under the Disaster and Safety Management Basic Act (Disaster Safety Act).
Professor Koo Jung-woo of Sungkyunkwan University’s Department of Sociology pointed out, "It is clear that the police and local governments’ on-site responses were inadequate," adding, "Although there was no organizer, responsibility must be clearly determined." He continued, "There is a need to amend the Disaster Safety Act so that the police can actively respond in case of congestion," and explained, "Everything must start again by filling institutional gaps, such as preparing response manuals afterward."
Professor Moon Hyun-chul of Soongsil University’s Department of Disaster Safety Management said, "The biggest problem was that no one managed the crowd simply because there was no organizer, even though young people were gathered in narrow alleys," pointing out, "The state, local governments, and police all need to directly intervene and check safety matters when crowds are dense." He added, "It seems necessary to legislate so that the entities responsible for protecting the public can take the lead and bear responsibility."
Professor Lee Woong-hyuk of Konkuk University’s Department of Police Science also emphasized, "The Itaewon crush disaster occurred because people excessively gathered in one space, causing physical and structural problems that triggered the incident," adding, "Since the police’s passive response also exacerbated the problem, it is necessary to strengthen the authority to manage even without an organizer."
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