[News Figures] 'Netanyahu's Return' Set to Become Israel's Longest-Serving Prime Minister

Supporters of Benjamin Netanyahu are cheering as the exit poll results of the general election were announced on the 1st (local time). (Photo by NYT)

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo Yoo-jin] Benjamin Netanyahu, the former Prime Minister of Israel, is poised for victory in the Israeli general election. If his win is confirmed through the vote count, he will successfully return to power after being ousted by the 'anti-Netanyahu' coalition about a year and a half ago. However, since he is currently under investigation for corruption charges and his party holds only a slim majority, there are concerns that stable governance may be difficult.

According to major foreign media including The New York Times (NYT) on the 1st (local time), exit polls from the three major broadcasters in the Israeli general election held that day predicted a narrow victory for Netanyahu's right-wing bloc, securing 61 to 62 seats out of the 120-seat Knesset, which is a majority.

The right-wing Likud Party, led by former Prime Minister Netanyahu, is expected to secure 30 to 31 seats, while the far-right alliance 'Religious Zionist Party,' which had only 6 seats in last March's election, made significant gains with 14 to 15 seats.

After observing the exit poll results, Netanyahu said, "It's a good start, but it's only an exit poll," showing caution ahead of the official vote count.

Major foreign media reported that there are allegations of attempts to manipulate the election results by the Likud Party led by Netanyahu, and the official count might not be finalized until this weekend. The Central Election Committee dismissed these controversies, stating there is no possibility of election fraud.

This year's election, the fifth held in four years, saw a voter turnout of 71.3%, the highest since 2015.

Unless there is an upset in the official vote count, former Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to return to power after being ousted by the anti-Netanyahu coalition in June last year, marking a comeback after one year and six months.

Foreign media pointed to the worst inflation as a key factor in the right-wing victory. CNN reported that within Israel, concerns over high prices due to increases in public utility fees and food costs led 44% of voters to focus on the economic pledges each candidate made to address the rising cost of living.

On the other hand, the bloc that participated in last year's anti-Netanyahu coalition was evaluated to have lost due to failure to control inflation and security. The exit polls showed the anti-Netanyahu bloc securing only 54 to 55 seats. The centrist Yesh Atid party, led by current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, secured 22 to 24 seats, and the National Unity Party, led by Defense Minister Benny Gantz, won 11 to 13 seats.

Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (Photo by CNBC)

Netanyahu, a representative figure of the Israeli right wing, served as Prime Minister once from 1996 to 1999 and then from 2009 to 2019, holding the record for the longest tenure of 15 years and 2 months in total.

During his tenure as Prime Minister in 2019, his political standing was severely shaken as he faced prosecution for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust.

If Netanyahu is elected Prime Minister again, it is expected that he could use parliamentary immunity to avoid a heavy sentence, but there are also predictions that he will face difficulties in consolidating his support base.

The NYT reported, "Israel's political deadlock began when former Prime Minister Netanyahu refused to step down after being investigated for corruption charges," adding, "Now voters are split in half between those who believe he should step away from politics and those who believe he should stay."

Since Netanyahu's right-wing bloc holds only a slim majority, it is also predicted that stable governance will be difficult to guarantee.

The next coalition government formed by Netanyahu is expected to be extremely right-wing, with policies toward Palestinians and the Arab world becoming more hardline. CNN reported that the repeated elections and political turmoil reflect economic instability caused by inflation and the prolonged Israel-Palestine armed conflict.

Amid the turmoil in the Middle East following the Arab Spring and threats from Iran, Israel has held five elections in three years due to severe political division. After the April and September 2019 elections, coalition formation itself failed.

After the March 2020 election, the right-wing Likud Party led by Netanyahu and the centrist Blue and White Party led by Defense Minister Gantz formed a coalition government under the pretext of overcoming the COVID-19 crisis, but it collapsed amid conflicts over budget approval.

Following the March 2023 election, after the failure of Netanyahu's right-wing coalition formation, the 'anti-Netanyahu coalition' designed by current Prime Minister Lapid was launched. However, the coalition collapsed within a year as some right-wing lawmakers defected one after another.