[2nd Report] North Fires 2 Ballistic Missiles... Late-Night Provocation Ahead of Workers' Party Founding Day

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) into the East Sea on the 9th. This provocation came after the conclusion of the joint maritime maneuver exercise involving the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, and was launched late at night, just one day before the 77th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party (October 10).

The Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that from around 1:48 a.m. to 1:48 a.m. on the same day, two SRBMs were detected launched from the area around Munchon (north of Wonsan), Gangwon Province, into the East Sea. Munchon is home to a naval base, and in April 2020, North Korea had previously launched a short-range cruise missile from there. It is analyzed that North Korea demonstrated its 'customized' launch capability by varying the launch time and location according to the target.

The military authorities are analyzing specifications such as range, altitude, and speed, and have strengthened surveillance and vigilance while maintaining a state of readiness through close cooperation between South Korea and the US. This is the first time this year that North Korea has launched ballistic missiles during late-night hours, despite frequent provocations recently.

This appears to be an attempt to test the joint readiness posture of South Korea and the US, and to cause fatigue to the South Korean military and government authorities by carrying out the launch in the early morning hours. There is also analysis that the time was chosen to coincide with around 1 a.m. on the 5th, when South Korea and the US fired two ATACMS each into the East Sea in response to North Korea's intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) provocation. Previously, North Korea has also launched missiles at times such as 6:10 p.m. (September 28) and 8:48 p.m. (September 29).

This provocation occurred about 15 hours after a North Korean Ministry of Defense spokesperson disparaged the re-entry of the USS Ronald Reagan into the East Sea as "a so-called military bluff intended to send a warning in response to the just reaction of our military to the extremely provocative and threatening joint military exercises by the US and South Korea." On the same day, a spokesperson for the North Korean State Aviation General Bureau claimed, "Our missile test launches are normal and planned self-defensive measures to protect the country's safety and regional peace from the direct military threats by the US that have continued for over half a century."

North Korea has launched its seventh ballistic missile in fifteen days from the 25th of last month to this day. It fired one SRBM from the Taechon area in North Pyongan Province on the 25th of last month; two from the Sunan area in Pyongyang on the 28th; two from the Sunchon area in South Pyongan Province on the 29th; two from the Sunan area in Pyongyang on the 1st of this month; and two from the Samseok area in Pyongyang on the 6th, all into the East Sea. On the 4th, it launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), presumed to be a Hwasong-12, at maximum range, recording a flight distance of 4,500 km. The recent series of provocations is analyzed as a response to the arrival of the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76, 103,000 tons) in Busan on the 23rd of last month, the joint South Korea-US maritime exercises from the 26th to the 29th, and the South Korea-US-Japan anti-submarine warfare exercise on the 30th.

After North Korea's IRBM provocation, the US dispatched an aircraft carrier again to the East Sea on the 5th, and a South Korea-US-Japan missile defense exercise was conducted on the 6th. In response, North Korea flew a protest formation of four bombers and eight fighter jets, conducting combined air-to-ground firing training, and launched another provocation on the same day. North Korea has launched ballistic missiles 23 times and cruise missiles twice this year. Since the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, this marks the 11th missile launch.