[Global Issue+] Bin Salman, from Saudi 'Power Broker' to 'Head of State'... Turbulence in the Middle East

Abolishing Fraternal Inheritance, Implementing Firstborn Inheritance
Calls for Generational Change and Reform... Criticism of Factions and Dictatorship
Shiite and Iran's Hardline Policy Continues... Concerns Over Expanding External Conflicts

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince who has been called the power behind the throne in Saudi Arabia, has assumed the position of prime minister, the head of state. Traditionally, the prime ministership was held concurrently by the king, but with Crown Prince bin Salman taking office as prime minister, analyses both inside and outside Saudi Arabia suggest that the succession to the throne has been effectively confirmed.

Crown Prince bin Salman has received positive evaluations for leading Saudi Arabia's reforms and generational change, but at the same time, he has been criticized for his excessive hardline foreign policies that have led to prolonged conflicts with Yemen and Iran, as well as deteriorating relations with the United States. With him becoming the head of state, significant changes are expected in the Middle East situation surrounding the restoration negotiations of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA ? Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) with the U.S.

First Father-to-Son Succession Confirmed Since Founding... Concerns Over Factional Conflicts

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

According to CNN on the 27th (local time), King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia announced a royal decree appointing Crown Prince bin Salman as prime minister. Traditionally, the prime ministership in Saudi Arabia was held by the king, while the crown prince served as first deputy prime minister and defense minister. This appointment is unprecedented, as the crown prince has now assumed the role of head of state as prime minister.

His appointment as prime minister, which is effectively equivalent to succession to the throne, has drawn attention from Saudi Arabia and many Middle Eastern countries regarding the future direction of Saudi politics. Since the founding in 1925, Saudi Arabia has maintained brother-to-brother succession, and this is the first time a king has emerged through father-to-son succession, which is expected to become a source of conflict within the royal family.

The reason Crown Prince bin Salman assumed the prime ministership is interpreted primarily as a precaution against the sudden absence of King Salman, who is 86 years old this year. With the passing of the late Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom, King Salman became the world's oldest reigning monarch, raising concerns about his health and ability to devote himself fully to state affairs.

However, some analyses suggest that this move is more about internal factional struggles within the Saudi royal family and confirming that the succession rights firmly belong to Crown Prince bin Salman. According to the British BBC, King Salman led the Sudairi faction, the most powerful faction within the Saudi royal family, which opposed the reform measures of the late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the previous monarch.

The Sudairi faction refers to the royal family members born to Queen Sudairi, the 10th wife of Saudi Arabia's founding king Ibn Saud. Her seven sons, known as the "Sudairi Seven Brothers," formed a powerful faction within the royal family. With Crown Prince bin Salman’s appointment to the prime ministership, which is effectively succession to the throne, the Sudairi faction's power is expected to strengthen further, but concerns are growing that factional rivalries will intensify as well.

Reform and Generational Change VS Dictatorship and Prolonged War: Two Faces

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

With Crown Prince bin Salman becoming head of state, the reforms and generational changes he has led in Saudi Arabia are expected to accelerate. Since becoming crown prince, he has been advancing the "Vision 2030" project aimed at reducing Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil and diversifying the economy. He has also taken bold steps such as allowing women to drive and permitting them to enter stadiums.

However, on the other hand, he is notorious as a ruthless dictator who eliminates his political opponents without hesitation. In 2018, he ousted his cousin Mohammed bin Nayef, who was first in line for the throne, and assumed the crown prince position. He also arrested 11 princes, 4 ministers, and dozens of former ministers on corruption charges. Many people were sacrificed during his consolidation of power.

He has also been implicated as the mastermind behind the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist, which led to a prolonged deterioration in relations with the United States and raised concerns within Saudi Arabia itself.

Moreover, the biggest reason his ascension to head of state has alarmed neighboring Middle Eastern countries is his hardline foreign policy. While serving concurrently as first deputy prime minister and defense minister, Crown Prince bin Salman maintained a tough stance against Iran and continued the war against the Yemeni Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran.

In 2016, he executed 47 Shiite clerics in Saudi Arabia on charges of anti-state activities, which completely antagonized Saudi Arabia and Iran. Recently, when the Biden administration led efforts to restore the Iran nuclear deal, he strongly opposed the negotiations alongside Israel. Attention is focused on how much his rule will impact Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East situation going forward.