Ministry of Unification: "North Korea Likely Judged Now as an Opportune Time to Strengthen Nuclear Forces"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Seongpil Cho] The Ministry of Unification analyzed that North Korea's move to legislate nuclear forces at this point in time is likely based on the judgment that it is an opportune moment to qualitatively and quantitatively strengthen its nuclear forces.

On the 27th, through a response document submitted to Kim Tae-ho, a member of the National Assembly's Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee from the People Power Party, the Ministry of Unification stated, "Considering the situation around the Korean Peninsula, including the strengthening of South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation amid U.S.-China competition and the North Korea-China-Russia alliance, North Korea may have judged that it is an opportune time to qualitatively and quantitatively strengthen its nuclear forces by announcing an offensive nuclear force policy."

The Ministry of Unification also evaluated that since North Korea adopted the law titled "On Further Consolidating the Status of a Self-Defensive Nuclear State" in 2013, it appears to reflect the results of strengthening its nuclear forces, including three nuclear tests from the 4th to the 6th, successful intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches, and the declaration of nuclear force completion in November 2017. It further analyzed that "there may also be an intention to gain recognition as a nuclear-armed state by publicly announcing nuclear force policies similar to the nuclear doctrines of existing nuclear powers."

As an immediate task, the Ministry of Unification emphasized the need to "thoroughly prepare for the possibility of North Korean provocations while further concretizing the government's denuclearization roadmap, the 'Bold Initiative,' and expanding cooperation and support bases with the international community." It stressed, "It is necessary to demonstrate that the will for denuclearization by us and the international community is stronger than North Korea's reckless nuclear development intentions."

Regarding follow-up measures to the Bold Initiative, it explained, "Efforts are underway to secure close consultations with the U.S. and support from relevant countries such as China, while internally concretizing implementation plans for major projects through inter-agency collaboration." The Ministry of Unification also confirmed that the Bold Initiative includes measures for conventional arms reduction discussions and deepening military confidence-building on the Korean Peninsula, and stated that more specific details will be considered for additional disclosure depending on North Korea's response.

Meanwhile, although the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has expressed its position to consistently pursue humanitarian aid to North Korea regardless of political or military situations, it appears that no aid has been provided to North Korea since the government took office. According to a response document submitted by the Ministry of Unification to Park Byeong-seok, a member of the Democratic Party, government-level aid to North Korea has been nonexistent this year. Although private-sector aid to North Korea amounted to approximately 1.9 billion KRW this year, it was understood to have been provided before the Yoon Suk-yeol administration took office in May.

Since 1995, the total amount of humanitarian aid to North Korea has been calculated at 3.3422 trillion KRW, including 2.4147 trillion KRW from the government and 927.5 billion KRW from the private sector. By administration, the Roh Moo-hyun government period recorded the highest amount at 1.8834 trillion KRW, followed by the Kim Dae-jung government with 855.8 billion KRW, the Lee Myung-bak government with 249.4 billion KRW, the Kim Young-sam government with 231.5 billion KRW, the Park Geun-hye government with 66.7 billion KRW, and the Moon Jae-in government with 55.3 billion KRW, in that order.