Dispute Over the Truth of North Korea's Russian Arms Exports... How Reliable Is It?

US Intelligence Claims "North Korea Exports Millions of Shells to Russia"
North Korea Denies "No History or Plans to Export Weapons or Ammunition to Russia"

On the 26th, the Korean Central News Agency released photos on its website of the North Korea-Russia summit held the previous day at the Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, Russia. North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un is taking a commemorative photo with Russian President Vladimir Putin before the summit. (Photo by Yonhap News)

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea has denied the fact that Russia requested arms exports. This is a backlash against U.S. intelligence agencies revealing that Russia is purchasing millions of shells and rockets from North Korea for use in the Ukraine war.

In a statement released on the 22nd by the Deputy Director of the Equipment General Bureau of the Ministry of Defense of North Korea to the Korean Central News Agency, he said, "We have never exported weapons or ammunition to Russia in the past, nor do we plan to do so in the future," adding, "Recently, hostile forces including the United States have been spreading rumors about 'arms deals' between our country and Russia, and are making noise about alleged violations of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions."

He drew a clear line, stating, "The development, production, and possession of military equipment, as well as export-import activities with other countries, are inherent and legitimate rights of sovereign states, and no one has the qualification to dispute this."

Earlier, on the 6th (local time), Patrick Ryder, spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Defense, said in a briefing in response to the question, "Is it true that Russia is buying shells and other munitions from North Korea?" "Yes," adding, "We have indications that Russia has contacted North Korea to request ammunition." However, he did not disclose the exact types of weapons, timing, or scale of transportation.

The Security Council, under North Korea sanctions resolution 1718 in 2006, banned the export and import of seven major weapons including tanks and armored vehicles to and from North Korea, and expanded the list of banned items to all weapons including small arms and light weapons through resolutions 1874 (2009) and 2270 (2016). If North Korea exported weapons to Russia, it would constitute a violation of sanctions.

However, there is an ongoing dispute over the truth as neither North Korea nor the U.S. has been able to provide concrete evidence regarding North Korea’s arms exports to Russia.

Kim Dong-yeop of the Far East Institute at Gyeongnam National University said, "Even in the materials released by the U.S., there is no precise evidence, so it seems difficult to impose additional sanctions over North Korea’s arms exports to Russia," adding, "From North Korea’s perspective, simply protesting is a matter of pride."

There are also opinions that it is natural for North Korea to protest given its aspiration to be a normal state. Jung Young-tae, director of the Unification Military Research Institute and distinguished professor at Dongyang University, said, "North Korea aspires to be a normal state possessing nuclear weapons, so if it exports weapons to Russia, which started the war, it will inevitably face additional sanctions and unofficial pressure," adding, "While the possibility of arms exports is high, North Korea will protest to assert its status as a normal state."

There is also an assessment that the possibility of North Korea exporting weapons to Russia is high. Since the collapse of the Hanoi North Korea-U.S. summit in 2019, North Korea has abandoned improving relations with the U.S. and has been strengthening ties with traditional allies such as Russia and China. North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un mentioned strategic, tactical, and supportive solidarity between the two countries in a congratulatory message sent to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 15th of last month.

Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Office at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, said, "Russia has even issued a mobilization order but is still short of weapons," adding, "Since Russia uses the same weapons as North Korea, the possibility that it would request exports is high." He also added, "From North Korea’s perspective, even if it exported weapons, it would strongly deny the fact of export to avoid additional sanctions against North Korea."