[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Is President Yoon Open to Arms Reduction Talks?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Interest is growing in the feasibility of the "conventional weapons system disarmament talks" mentioned by President Yoon Suk-yeol during his 100-day inauguration press conference. The intention is to discuss diplomatic support, including normalization of US-North Korea relations, if North Korea halts its nuclear development, along with talks on disarmament of conventional weapons systems. However, the key issue is how much North Korea will respond.

During the Moon Jae-in administration in 2018, South and North Korea led the "Military Agreement for the Implementation of the Panmunjom Declaration" (September 19 Military Agreement), which significantly reduced military tensions on the Korean Peninsula. This can be interpreted as a preliminary step toward disarmament talks. The September 19 Military Agreement includes practical measures to prevent military clashes, such as establishing buffer zones to prohibit hostile acts in all land, sea, and air spaces, the substantial demilitarization and peaceful use of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), and the creation of a West Sea Peace Zone.

In practice, both Koreas withdrew all weapons from the Panmunjom Joint Security Area (JSA), and soldiers from both sides were deployed in an unarmed state for guard duty. Eleven DMZ Guard Posts (GPs) were also withdrawn on a trial basis, proceeding relatively smoothly compared to any other agreements between the two Koreas.

However, after the breakdown of the Hanoi US-North Korea summit last February, the previously smooth implementation of military agreements between the two Koreas stalled as North Korea adopted a passive stance. The Ministry of National Defense has emphasized that since the September 19 Military Agreement, no acts have been identified that escalate military tensions on land, sea, or air in the border areas between the two Koreas.

Nonetheless, there is still a long way to go before full implementation of the complete demilitarization and free movement in the Panmunjom JSA, joint excavation of remains in the DMZ, complete withdrawal of GPs, and establishment of the West Sea maritime peace zone. In particular, discussions on disarmament of conventional weapons systems can only take place after the September 19 Military Agreement is firmly established. North Korea has already continued military provocations, undermining the trust built between the two Koreas.

To continue discussions on the suspended implementation of the September 19 Military Agreement and to seek more fundamental solutions to various military issues, the formation of a South-North Military Joint Committee appears to be a priority. Following the military trust-building under the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration and implementation of the September 19 Military Agreement, the redeployment and control of military forces must be possible for the next step of disarmament to be feasible.

The Military Joint Committee would enable consultations on large-scale military exercises and force enhancements aimed at each other, various forms of blockade and navigation interference issues, cessation of reconnaissance activities against the other side, as well as full-scale discussions on disarmament measures to substantially reduce the risk of war.

On the 100th day of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s inauguration, North Korea launched two cruise missiles. This is the second cruise missile launch this year following January, and appears to be a strong reaction against the start of the pre-exercises for the South Korea-US joint exercise "Ulchi Freedom Shield" (UFS).

A government official said, "Military agreements between the two Koreas are inevitably influenced by US-North Korea talks," adding, "North Korea must first show its willingness for denuclearization through US-North Korea dialogue and other channels."