Increased by 9 More Than the Previous Day, Highest in 108 Days
New Cases May Surge on the 17th if Testing Recovers on the 16th
On the 12th, when the spread of COVID-19 continued, the domestic terminal of Gimpo Airport in Gangseo-gu, Seoul, was crowded with travelers. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@
[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] As the COVID-19 resurgence approaches its peak phase, the number of critically ill patients has reached the highest level since the end of April. Although the increase in new confirmed cases has slowed, the three-day Liberation Day holiday and the start of elementary, middle, and high school semesters earlier this week have caused a rise in cases again, leading to forecasts that the resurgence will last longer than expected.
Testing Decreased During Holiday... New Confirmed Cases 1.1 Times Higher Than Previous Week
According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 15th, as of midnight, 62,078 new COVID-19 cases were reported, bringing the total cumulative confirmed cases to 21,418,036.
While the number of new confirmed cases dropped to about half of the previous day’s figure (119,603), it is 1.12 times higher than a week ago on the 8th (55,262) and 1.39 times higher than two weeks ago on the 1st (44,654). This is partly due to a decrease in diagnostic testing over the weekend, but the number of confirmed cases on Mondays has been increasing for seven consecutive weeks since June 27.
From the 9th to the recent week, the daily new confirmed cases were 149,866 → 151,748 → 137,204 → 128,714 → 124,592 → 119,603 → 62,078, averaging 124,829 cases per day.
Experts view the ongoing Liberation Day holiday and the start of the school semester this week as variables affecting the trend of the resurgence. They predict that even after the resurgence peaks, many new confirmed cases will continue to occur, causing the wave to last somewhat longer. Once testing numbers recover after the holiday ends on the 16th, the new confirmed cases announced on the 17th are expected to surge sharply.
Moreover, if there are many 'hidden confirmed cases' who do not get tested despite having COVID-19 symptoms, the number of confirmed cases may decline more slowly even after the peak. Another variable is the waning immunity of those who acquired natural immunity after being infected during the Omicron wave last March, leading to an increase in reinfection rates.
Earlier, health authorities raised their forecast for the resurgence peak to "200,000 cases per day within this month." In a briefing on the 11th, they stated, "As the resurgence moves into the peak phase, with increased population movement during the weekend and Liberation Day holiday, the importance of personal preventive measures and protecting high-risk groups is emphasized. (Future trend forecasts) will be announced reflecting post-holiday trends."
Critically Ill Patients Increase Eightfold in One Month
As the wave continues for a long period, the increase in critically ill patients is also becoming prominent. Although the government pledged to focus on 'targeted quarantine' to prevent infections and severe cases among high-risk groups, some regions’ hospital bed occupancy rates have already approached dangerous levels.
As of midnight today, the number of hospitalized critically ill patients rose by 9 from the previous day to 521, marking the highest level in 108 days since April 29 (526 patients). Compared to July 15, when there were 65 critically ill patients, the number has surged more than eightfold in just one month.
The number of critically ill patients reflects the increase in new confirmed cases with a 1-2 week lag. Since daily new confirmed cases have exceeded 100,000 this month, the number of critically ill patients is likely to continue rising for the time being.
Among critically ill patients as of today, nearly half (49.14%) or 256 patients were aged 80 or older, 122 patients (23.42%) were in their 70s, and 79 patients (15.16%) were in their 60s.
The occupancy rate of critically ill care beds nationwide was 45.0% (805 out of 1,790 beds in use), up 2.5 percentage points from the previous day (42.5%). The occupancy rate for semi-critical care beds was 65.3%, and for moderate care beds was 47.3%, rising 3.2 and 1.8 percentage points respectively from the previous day. Notably, the moderate care bed occupancy rate in the Seoul metropolitan area exceeded 70%, reaching 71.6%, up 3.9 percentage points from the previous day’s 67.7%.
The number of deaths due to COVID-19 was 50 yesterday, 7 fewer than the previous day (57), but has remained above 50 daily for six consecutive days since the 10th.
Among the deaths reported today, half (25) were aged 80 or older, 15 were in their 70s, 8 in their 60s, and one each in their 50s and 40s. Consequently, the total cumulative death toll stands at 25,673, with a fatality rate of 0.12%.
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