[US Pelosi's Visit to Taiwan] China’s Military Demonstration... Could It Affect the Korean Peninsula?

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Seulgina Jo] As Nancy Pelosi, the third-ranking figure in U.S. power, set foot on Taiwanese soil?a powder keg in the U.S.-China hegemonic war?China has responded with large-scale military exercises employing encirclement tactics, escalating tensions. Following North Korea's nuclear threats and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the conflict structure of 'South Korea-U.S.-Japan versus North Korea-China-Russia' is becoming increasingly acute. With tensions in the Taiwan Strait reaching a peak, concerns are rising that the fallout could spread to the Korean Peninsula.

According to major foreign media, Pelosi arrived in Taipei, Taiwan, on the night of the 2nd (local time) and is scheduled to meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on the 3rd. Afterwards, she will visit the Legislative Yuan (parliament) and the Human Rights Museum, meet with Chinese dissidents, and is expected to depart around 4 to 5 p.m. The visit marks the first time a U.S. House Speaker has visited Taiwan in 25 years, since Newt Gingrich in 1997.

Pelosi is expected to deliver strong remarks against China at a press conference scheduled for the 3rd. Known as a prominent China hawk, she emphasized in a statement immediately upon arrival that her visit is in defense of democracy. Additionally, in a Washington Post (WP) op-ed, she criticized Chinese President Xi Jinping for disregarding human rights and the rule of law.

For the United States, Taiwan holds significant geopolitical and economic importance. It serves as a forward base to contain China's expanding military power in the South Pacific and is a key player in the semiconductor supply chain alliance (Chip 4) being planned to maintain technological hegemony. During her visit, Pelosi will also meet with Liu Deyin, chairman of Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturer).

From the perspective of the technology alliance, South Korea is mentioned alongside Taiwan in the Chip 4 alliance, which China strongly opposes, placing it at the center of the conflict. As U.S.-China tensions escalate, South Korea's room for maneuver will inevitably narrow.

Moreover, if China resorts to military action against Taiwan, there is a high possibility that South Korea and Japan, where U.S. forces are stationed, could be drawn into the conflict. Military diplomacy experts believe that in such a case, China would likely seek to use North Korea to disperse U.S. military power.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, strongly opposes Pelosi's visit as a violation of the 'One China' principle. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced that from the 4th to the 7th, it will conduct military exercises and live-fire drills in designated training areas and airspace near Taiwan. This is effectively a Taiwan encirclement exercise and is highly unusual. China has also initiated immediate economic retaliation, including suspending imports of Taiwanese fish and citrus products.

Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is also shaking global financial markets. Risk aversion sentiment has intensified, leading to a broad decline in the New York stock market. On the 3rd, the won-dollar exchange rate opened at 1,315 won, up 10.3 won from the previous day's closing price in the Seoul foreign exchange market.