Full-Scale ROK-US Joint Exercises Begin This Month... Turbulent Korean Peninsula

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] The South Korean and U.S. military authorities are preparing for full-scale joint military exercises starting this month, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula is expected to fluctuate depending on North Korea's level of response. Some view this as the first major challenge in inter-Korean relations under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration.

According to the Ministry of National Defense on the 1st, from this day, the South Korean and U.S. navies along with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force will conduct the "Pacific Dragon" exercise near the waters off Hawaii, which involves detecting and tracking North Korea's ballistic missiles. This is the first time in six years since 2016 that the three countries?South Korea, the U.S., and Japan?have publicly conducted a ballistic missile detection and tracking exercise targeting North Korea.

Starting on the 22nd, the joint South Korea-U.S. exercise "Ulchi Freedom Shield" (UFS) will be held. This exercise revives and continues the Ulchi exercises that were scaled down during the Moon Jae-in administration, and it will be conducted as a theater-level joint exercise under the concept of total national defense. On the 29th of last month (local time), Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop agreed with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin during the South Korea-U.S. defense ministerial meeting in the U.S. to integrate and expand joint exercises.

The South Korea-U.S. defense ministers also agreed to hold a high-level Expanded Deterrence Strategy Committee (EDSCG) meeting in the near future. Additionally, they agreed to hold a tabletop exercise (TTX) on the operation of extended deterrence means at an appropriate time within the year after reactivating the EDSCG. The TTX is an exercise aimed at developing joint deterrence measures in preparation for a nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

From next spring, the joint South Korea-U.S. amphibious landing exercise "Ssang Yong Exercise" will also be revived. This is part of the normalization of South Korea-U.S. joint exercises and is expected to be the first large-scale joint outdoor maneuver exercise under the current administration. Since amphibious landing exercises are offensive rather than defensive in nature, they are highly sensitive joint exercises for North Korea. On the 27th of last month, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un personally harshly criticized the strengthening of the South Korea-U.S. joint defense posture, including joint exercises.

Although South Korea and the U.S. have not specifically mentioned whether U.S. strategic assets will be deployed during these exercises, there is speculation that deployment is highly likely in the event of North Korean military provocations.