Large Chinese Space Debris to Fall 'Uncontrolled' on the 31st [Reading Science]

Large Rocket Transporting Chinese Space Station Module on the 24th
Forecasted to Fall Between 41°N and 41°S Around the 31st
Exact Location Still Unknown... 5.5~9.9t Debris Expected to Impact Surface
US Criticizes, Calling It "Opaque and Irresponsible"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] The debris of a large rocket recently launched by China to build its own space station is expected to re-enter the atmosphere and crash on the 31st. Weighing up to 25 tons, it could cause tremendous damage if it falls on cities or towns, sparking international controversy over space debris management.

According to space specialist media Space.com on the 28th, experts predict that the core stage of the Long March 5B rocket, which was launched on the 24th carrying the second module for the construction of the Tiangong space station, will re-enter the atmosphere and crash around 3:30 a.m. on the 31st (Eastern Time, USA). This prediction is based on tracking data from the U.S. Space Force's Space Surveillance Network.

The exact crash location is still unknown. However, considering the rocket's orbit since launch, it is expected to fall within the region between 41 degrees north latitude and 41 degrees south latitude.

The problem is that the rocket is likely to remain intact without burning up upon atmospheric re-entry and crash to the ground. Experts say that when large space objects fall, typically 20-40% of their weight survives the descent, so in this case, about 5.5 to 9.9 tons of debris are expected to hit the surface. If it falls in a densely populated area, it could cause enormous damage.

Other countries design rocket orbits so that after mission completion, they safely fall into the ocean or sparsely populated areas. There are also methods like SpaceX's Falcon 9, which controls thrust to land and recover rockets for reuse. However, the biggest issue with China's Long March 5B rocket is that it lacks such safety measures; after reaching orbit, it is pulled back into Earth's atmosphere by gravity and is expected to crash uncontrollably.

The Long March 5B, one of China's largest rockets, has completed three missions so far. During its first launch on May 5, 2020, it crashed uncontrollably into the western coast of Africa a week later, with debris washing ashore. The second mission in May 2021 saw it crash into the Indian Ocean 10 days after launch. Notably, China's test space station Tiangong 1 caused global concern when it crashed into the Pacific Ocean in April 2018.

Other countries, including the U.S., have expressed disapproval. When the Long March 5B crashed for the second time last year, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson issued a public statement saying, "Countries launching space vehicles must minimize and transparently manage the risks to life and property from debris re-entering the atmosphere," and criticized China for "clearly failing to meet responsible standards regarding their space debris."

Meanwhile, China plans to use the Long March 5B rocket once more this fall to transport a large module for space station construction.