"Doubts About Combat Power... Putin's Desperate, Reckless Recruitment Leading to Military Service Refusals"

On May 21st (local time), soldiers of the Chechen Republic, Russia, are patrolling a residential area in the southern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Sumi] Russia, which boasts overwhelming military power and invaded Ukraine, is reportedly facing serious troop losses. Russia has been recruiting reservists and encouraging prisoners and homeless people to enlist in an effort to secure manpower. However, the number of young Russian men refusing military service is increasing, making it difficult to resolve the manpower shortage.

On the 9th (local time), US CNBC reported, citing the UK Ministry of Defence’s Defence Intelligence, that Russia, which invaded Ukraine, is strengthening its forces for additional attacks. According to the report, Russia is recruiting reservists nationwide and assembling them near the Ukrainian border.

This appears to be because the Russian military has reorganized after occupying Luhansk Province, one axis of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, and is preparing to attack the remaining area, Donetsk Province. Currently, the Russian military is said to have halted operations and redeployed troops and replenished supplies to stockpile the strength needed for a full-scale assault on Donetsk.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated, "The full-scale operations of the Russian military have not yet begun." This is interpreted to mean that the current Russian military strength is not all there is, and stronger firepower will be demonstrated in future battles.

However, doubts have been raised about the combat effectiveness of the newly recruited forces. It is analyzed that these troops are equipped with outdated weapon systems and inadequate gear. The UK Defence Intelligence stated, "Most of the new infantry units are using MT-LB armored vehicles, which have been left in warehouses for a long time, as their main means of transport." The MT-LB armored vehicle was designed in the 1950s as a tractor to tow artillery, with very thin armor and only machine guns as mounted defensive weapons.

It also criticized this as a stark contrast to the early war Russian assault units, which were equipped with BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles featuring armor up to 33mm thick, 30mm autocannons, and anti-tank missiles. It predicted that the newly reinforced Russian troops would be nothing more than a temporary group mobilized with old or substandard equipment.

Initially, Russia boasted overwhelming military power at the start of the invasion of Ukraine. However, after more than four months of war, its troop numbers have drastically decreased. The Russian independent media outlet Istories cited recent statistics from the Ukrainian General Staff and the UK Defence Intelligence, reporting that Russia has lost 2-4% of its military personnel since the start of the conflict.

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a toast via video at the opening ceremony of the 14th BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other emerging economies) National Business Forum in Moscow on the 23rd of last month (local time).
[Image source=Yonhap News]

In this situation, Russia recently began recruiting prisoners as well. This appears to be a measure to replenish depleted forces. According to the Russian media Moscow Times on the 5th, the military company Wagner, linked to the Kremlin, made such offers to prisoners in jails located in Saint Petersburg and Nizhny Novgorod regions.

The offer states that prisoners who go to the battlefield and return alive after six months will receive 200,000 rubles (approximately 4.11 million KRW) and be immediately released regardless of their remaining sentence. In case of death during the war, 5 million rubles (approximately 103 million KRW) will be paid to their families. Initially, only prisoners with military service experience were recruited, but now related experience is not a requirement. However, inmates serving more than 20 years for heinous crimes are excluded. According to Istories, about 200 people applied, and 40 of them underwent preliminary investigations for enlistment.

Homeless people and chronic alcoholics were also encouraged to enlist. The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported, citing investigations by Russian human rights organizations, that the Russian military made such offers while recruiting soldiers in Donbas.

Meanwhile, it is known that a considerable number of people in Russia are refusing military service. According to recent major foreign media reports, the number of young Russian men trying to avoid conscription has surged since the Ukraine war. They either ignore summons or flee to other countries. Foreign media described this as a phenomenon reflecting the duality of Russian society.

Also, citing some lawyers and human rights groups, it was reported that many young Russians have sought legal support related to deferment of service in recent months. Especially, many young people from major cities such as Moscow and Saint Petersburg have visited. There has also been a flood of inquiries about alternative service. According to the civic group CAL (Citizen.Army.Law), inquiries about alternative service increased sharply from about 40 cases last year to over 400 cases in the first half of this year. Foreign media reported that this indicates many people are avoiding enlistment and fearing the war.