[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] British media reported that a confidential report from the UK government revealed that the Russian military has lost more than 30,000 troops so far, raising concerns about internal collapse as the damage expands. This is analyzed to be related to the slower-than-expected progress of Russia's Donbas offensive.
On the 30th (local time), the British media outlet Mirror cited a secret analysis report on the Russian invasion prepared by a senior UK government analyst, stating, "It is estimated that the Russian military has lost about 30,350 troops so far, and Russian President Vladimir Putin views the scale of troop losses as a price worth paying for achieving small victories in Ukraine." If this information is true, it means that the Russian military has lost more than 20% of the approximately 150,000 troops mobilized for the Ukraine war.
The report analyzed, "The Russian military is failing to achieve victory in Donbas and is advancing 1 to 2 km per day," adding, "They are struggling with repetitive, attritional infantry attacks reminiscent not of 2022 but of 1945." This is interpreted as a comparison to the Nazi German army, which suffered a crushing defeat while engaged in a war of attrition against the Soviet Union during World War II.
The report further stated, "President Putin has so far very effectively concealed significant failures from the Russian public and blamed several arrested officials," and added, "Until recently, the Russian people believed Putin's misinformation, but inside the Kremlin, messages are circulating that things are going wrong for Putin and his close aides and that it could escalate to a disaster level." As the facts about the Russian military's casualties begin to emerge, there is even an assessment that the entire Russian offensive could collapse.
The UK Ministry of Defence also analyzed in its latest briefing on the Ukraine situation that the Russian military is experiencing a shortage of experienced commanders, declining morale, and localized mutinies. The UK Ministry of Defence pointed out, "Russia may have suffered heavy losses among mid- and junior-level officers," and "a lack of competent platoon and company commanders can lead to lowered morale and poor discipline."
Meanwhile, according to recent estimates by the Ukrainian military, about 30,350 Russian soldiers have died since the war began, and thousands of Russian military vehicles have been destroyed, including 207 fighter jets, 174 helicopters, 1,349 tanks, and 13 boats.
Russian analyst Bruce Jones told Mirror in an interview, "There will come a point when the Russian military can no longer endure losses," adding, "At that point, the army is likely to lose combat capability. Such incidents have often occurred in the Russian military and are currently happening on a small scale."
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