Incheon Gyeyang-eul Lee Jae-myung 44.8% Yoon Hyung-sun 42.2%... 'Neck-and-neck' Within Margin of Error

Gyeonggi Bundang-gap Ahn Cheol-soo 58.0%, Kim Byung-kwan 28.4%

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, and Yoon Hyung-sun, the People Power Party candidate, running in the Incheon Gyeyang-eul by-election
[Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] A poll shows that Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate running in the Incheon Gyeyang-eul by-election, is leading Yoon Hyung-sun, the People Power Party candidate, within the margin of error.

On the 24th, Global Research conducted a survey commissioned by JTBC from the 22nd to 23rd targeting 500 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Incheon Gyeyang-eul. The results showed that 44.8% of respondents said they would vote for Lee, while 42.2% said they would vote for Yoon.

The gap between the two candidates was 2.6 percentage points, indicating a close race within the margin of error. Those who responded that they had 'no preferred candidate' accounted for 6.0%, and 'don't know/no response' was 7.1%.

During the same period, a survey of 500 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Bundang-gap, Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, asked about their preferred candidate in the by-election. The results showed that 58.0% would vote for Ahn Cheol-soo of the People Power Party, while 28.4% would vote for Kim Byung-kwan of the Democratic Party.

The support rate gap was 29.6 percentage points, significantly exceeding the margin of error. Those who responded that they had 'no preferred candidate' accounted for 6.3%, and 'don't know/no response' was 7.3%.

Both surveys were conducted via 100% wireless telephone interviews using mobile phone safe numbers, with a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Weighting was applied by gender, age group, and region based on the resident registration population announced by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety at the end of April 2022.

The response rate was 16% for Incheon Gyeyang-eul (500 completed surveys out of 3,131 total calls) and 11.8% for Bundang-gap, Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province (500 completed surveys out of 4,233 total calls). For more details, please refer to the Central Election Management Committee website.