2021 Total Fertility Rate 0.81... Decrease of 0.03 from Previous Year
Birth Rate Declines, Number of Deaths Surges
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[Asia Economy Intern Reporter Kim Nayeon] It was announced that South Korea's total fertility rate in 2021 was 0.81. Since the total fertility rate in 2020 was 0.84, it decreased by 0.03. The total fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman of childbearing age is expected to have in her lifetime, and it has been continuously declining since it first fell below 1 among OECD countries in 2018. While the birth rate is decreasing, the number of deaths is rapidly increasing, accelerating the recent population decline.
The Statistics Korea announced that the number of deaths in February this year was 29,189, a 22.7% increase compared to February of the previous year. It is very unusual for the number of deaths during the same period to increase by more than 20% in just one year.
While this is the highest number ever recorded for February since statistics began, the number of births in February was the lowest ever recorded for that month, resulting in a population decline for 28 consecutive months.
In January as well, the number of births was 24,598 and the number of deaths was 29,686, with deaths far exceeding births, causing the population to decrease by 5,088 in just one month. The pace of population decline is accelerating.
As the population decline accelerates, Statistics Korea predicted that the population of 51.84 million in 2020 will decrease by about 1.6 million to 50.19 million by 2040. This means that the population equivalent to that of Gangwon Province (1.53 million) will disappear over 20 years.
In particular, the reduction of the domestic working-age population (ages 15-64) is serious. It is predicted to decrease by 3.62 million over 10 years from 35.83 million in 2020, and to shrink to 26.76 million in 20 years. In 10 years, the working-age population will decrease by a number equivalent to the combined populations of Jeonnam (1.83 million) and Jeonbuk (1.78 million), and in 20 years, the working-age population will disappear by an amount similar to the population of Seoul (9.5 million).
On the other hand, the elderly population aged 65 and over is expected to exceed 10 million in 2025 from 8.07 million in 2020, reaching 16.98 million by 2040. The elderly population will increase 2.1 times over 20 years, ushering in an era where one in three people is elderly.
Last year, Japan's total fertility rate was 1.34, a decrease of 0.02 compared to 2019. The Japanese government aims to raise it to 1.8.
Japan's number of births in 2021 was 842,897, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year, marking the lowest level for six consecutive years. Meanwhile, the number of deaths was 1,452,289, an increase of 67,745 in one year, resulting in a population decline of over 600,000. This is equivalent to the population of Jeonju decreasing in just one year.
In South Korea, the number of marriages itself is significantly decreasing. The number of marriages in 2021 was 193,000, a 9.8% decrease compared to 2020. Since there were 330,000 marriages in 2011, the number has decreased by 140,000 over 10 years. Meanwhile, the number of divorces in 2021 was about 102,000.
However, the enormous burden of private education expenses makes people afraid to have children. The participation rate in private education for elementary, middle, and high school students in 2021 was 75.5%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points from the previous year. The average monthly private education cost per person was 367,000 won, a 21.5% surge compared to the previous year.
In a 2019 Statistics Korea survey asking "Which childbirth promotion policy should be expanded first," 21% of respondents pointed to "relief of children's education expenses," making it the overwhelming first choice.
Moreover, as of 2020, the suicide rate per 100,000 people was 25.7, about twice the OECD average. Especially, suicide is the leading cause of death among teenagers, people in their 20s, and 30s.
Since suicide is closely related to life satisfaction, the high suicide rate among people in their 20s reflects the despair of youth.
Intense competition, employment difficulties, and an uncertain future lower life satisfaction and cause youth to become discouraged. South Korea's university graduate employment rate is 75%, significantly lower than Japan's 87.8%. Among the 3.78 million employed people in their 20s, 1.41 million were non-regular workers as of 2021.
Among Koreans, only 1.5% expect the birth rate to rise in the future, while over 80% expect it to decline. This indicates a bleak outlook for future birth rates.
The Korea Economic Research Institute analyzed that the growth rate falls by 0.9 percentage points for every 0.25 decrease in the total fertility rate. As population decline intensifies, consumption contracts, hitting self-employed and small businesses, and large corporations may relocate overseas to secure markets and labor, prolonging economic recession. Welfare issues such as the "National Pension depletion controversy" will also become more serious.
The number of Koreans who will become adults in 20 years is already determined, but it seems difficult for the birth rate to rise until youth regain hope. It is time to restart low birth rate countermeasures by asking young people what can help them find hope.
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