[AKYUNG Poll] Kim Dong-yeon vs Kim Eun-hye Neck-and-Neck... Will the Presidential Election Replay, Will Gyeonggi-do Flip?

Democratic Party 40.8% vs People Power Party 48.2%
Kim Dong-yeon 43.3% vs Kim Eun-hye 43.9%

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Gyeonggi Province, which was a stronghold of the Democratic Party of Korea in the last presidential election, appears to have two leading candidates neck and neck in this poll. Looking at party support rates, it is possible to analyze that after the effect of former Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung, who served as governor of Gyeonggi Province, disappeared, the electoral landscape in Gyeonggi Province might shift to favor the People Power Party. Especially, despite the fact that local elections and other events took place right after the presidential election and full-scale election campaigns have not yet started, seven out of ten Gyeonggi residents expressed their intention to continue supporting their current preferred candidates, leading to the forecast that the outcome of the Gyeonggi gubernatorial election, like the last presidential election, will only be known after closely watching until the end.

According to a poll conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Asia Economy from the 27th to 28th targeting 1,010 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Gyeonggi Province (90% mobile, 10% landline, automated response), the People Power Party’s party support rate was 48.2%, ahead of the Democratic Party’s 40.8% beyond the margin of error. Compared to an earlier poll conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Asia Economy from the 1st to 2nd of this month targeting 1,009 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Gyeonggi Province, where the Democratic Party led slightly with 41.6% over the People Power Party’s 40.1%, this is a significant change. In the last presidential election, Democratic Party candidate Lee recorded 50.9% of the vote in Gyeonggi Province, significantly ahead of President-elect Yoon Seok-youl’s 45.6%. The public opinion landscape has reversed.

Regarding suitability for Gyeonggi governor, People Power Party candidate Kim Eun-hye led with 43.9%, narrowly ahead of Democratic Party candidate Kim Dong-yeon by 0.6 percentage points within the margin of error. Kim Dong-yeon secured majority support among those in their 20s (51.0%), 40s (54.0%), and 50s (52.3%). Kim Eun-hye showed strength among those in their 30s (44.6%) and those aged 60 and above (70.2%).

The reasons for support differ somewhat. Among Kim Dong-yeon’s supporters, the biggest reason cited was his background as an economic bureaucrat (36.9%). His experience as a career official in the economic sector, including as Deputy Prime Minister for Economy, was seen as a strength. On the other hand, Kim Eun-hye’s supporters pointed to her “excellent ability to implement pledges” (27.9%) as the reason for their choice. As a former spokesperson for President-elect Yoon, she is seen as having the advantage of backing from Yoon’s political base, which could lead to support from the central government in the next administration.

One notable feature of this poll is that despite the election campaign not having fully started, the public opinion landscape is clearly divided. Among Gyeonggi residents, 77.4% said they would continue to support their current preferred gubernatorial candidate. Those who said they might change their choice accounted for 17.9%, and 4.7% were undecided or did not know.

In particular, the intensity of continued support was high among the two leading candidates’ supporters. Among Kim Dong-yeon’s supporters, 82.2% expressed intention to continue support, and among Kim Eun-hye’s supporters, 81.0% did so.

▶ How was the survey conducted? = This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Realmeter over two days, the 27th and 28th, attempting to contact 57,108 eligible voters aged 18 or older residing in Gyeonggi Province. A total of 1,010 completed responses were obtained, with a response rate of 1.8%. The survey used an automated response method with 90% mobile and 10% landline calls, employing random digit dialing. Statistical adjustments were made using rim weighting by gender, age group, and region based on the March 2022 resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Realmeter website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.