[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Attention is focused on three words spoken by North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un in his speech at the 90th anniversary parade of the founding of the ‘Anti-Japanese Partisan’ (Anti-Japanese Guerrilla) unit. The words are ‘infringement on the fundamental interests of the state,’ ‘fundamental interests of the state,’ and ‘considering active measures.’ Experts interpret this as a warning message that North Korea may launch a preemptive nuclear strike if pressure such as economic sanctions continues.
In his speech at the parade held on the evening of the 25th to commemorate the 90th anniversary of the founding of the ‘Anti-Japanese Partisan’ (Anti-Japanese Guerrilla) unit, Chairman Kim stated, "If any force attempts to infringe upon the fundamental interests of our state, our nuclear force will inevitably carry out its second mission of surprise without fail."
This contrasts with North Korea’s previous justification for developing nuclear weapons, which was mainly ‘deterrence of war.’ It means that the scope of nuclear weapon use has been expanded to non-military situations. Following the earlier mention this month by Party Vice Director Kim Yo-jong of the possibility of preemptive nuclear use targeting South Korea, Kim Jong-un himself has now expanded the scope of nuclear weapon use from military situations (war) to non-military situations, raising the level of threat.
Chairman Kim mentioned the ‘fundamental interests of the state’ in his speech. This is similar to the phrase ‘the fundamental interests of our state and people’ he used in his policy speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly on April 12, 2019, which appears to refer to a big deal with the United States?that is, economic sanctions.
In this speech, Chairman Kim rapidly raised the level of nuclear threat. He said, "We will continue to take measures to strengthen and develop our nuclear force at the fastest possible speed," and "The current situation urges us to consider more active measures," indicating that North Korea’s ‘nuclear doctrine’ is becoming more offensive.
For this reason, the military and intelligence authorities believe there is a high possibility of a 7th nuclear test next month. The Ministry of National Defense also analyzed in the ‘2020 Defense White Paper’ that North Korea possesses about 50 kilograms of plutonium capable of making nuclear weapons and a significant amount of highly enriched uranium, and considering six nuclear tests, its capability to miniaturize nuclear weapons has reached a considerable level.
In particular, the ‘branch tunnel’ extending inside the No. 3 tunnel of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, where restoration work is underway, is not very deep, leading to speculation that the upcoming nuclear test may be for developing a small tactical nuclear weapon with an explosive yield of about 10 to 20 kt (kiloton; 1 kt equals the explosive power of 1,000 tons of TNT).
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
