"Not There"… Suspicious Orbit Change of Chinese Spy Satellite [Reading Science]

- Soyeon 10, launched last September, recently observed in Molniya orbit
- Unique orbit favorable for observations in high northern latitudes
- Initially aimed for geostationary orbit but failed
- Orbit likely adjusted for precise observation after Russia-Ukraine war

China's ChinaSat-18 satellite. Archive photo. Not directly related to the article.

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] A Chinese secret reconnaissance satellite has attracted attention by appearing in an unusual orbit, not the intended target, just six months after its launch.

Space news outlet SpaceNews reported on the 18th (local time), citing tracking information from the U.S. Space Command, that the Chinese secret reconnaissance satellite 'Shiyan-10,' launched six months ago, is currently orbiting in a 'Molniya' orbit rather than the originally intended geostationary orbit (about 36,000 km).

The Molniya orbit is a unique orbit mainly used for observing high-latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere. It has an inclination of 63.6 degrees and an elongated elliptical shape ranging from an altitude of 1,880 km to 38,881 km, completing two revolutions per day. It was devised by the former Soviet Union in the 1970s to observe high-latitude areas. While geostationary orbits at 36,000 km altitude maintain 24-hour communication with satellites over low-latitude and equatorial regions, they often lose connection in high-latitude areas, limiting their effectiveness. The Molniya orbit overcomes this weakness, allowing continuous 24-hour communication relay, real-time early warning, and Earth observation with just three satellites.

Changzheng 3B launch vehicle of China. Stock photo. Not related to the article.

While U.S. and Russian satellites have occasionally used this orbit, Shiyan-10 is the first Chinese satellite to do so. Notably, Shiyan-10 attracted more attention because it abruptly changed its orbit from the originally planned one to the Molniya orbit. Although Shiyan-10 was successfully launched on September 27 last year aboard a Long March 3B launch vehicle, it failed to reach the geostationary orbit due to a main engine ignition failure. Until the end of February, the satellite was observed near the lowest altitude of the geostationary orbit, suggesting it was still attempting to fulfill its original mission.

Experts analyze that after the main engine failure, Chinese space authorities used auxiliary engines to attempt entry into the geostationary orbit but later revised the mission, using fuel-intensive engine operations to place the satellite into the Molniya orbit. Coincidentally, China operates a satellite ground station in Kiruna, northern Sweden, enabling long-duration communication with Shiyan-10. Consequently, there is speculation that China may have changed Shiyan-10's operational purpose to observe high-latitude regions following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war.

China, along with Russia, has recently significantly strengthened its space capabilities, causing concern in the United States. According to a report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency on the 12th, China and Russia's space capabilities have grown by more than 70% in the past two years. The report pointed out that this is "evidence that China and Russia are attempting to undermine U.S. and allied leadership in the space domain." In contrast, the next day, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized this, stating, "It is the United States that is developing and deploying space attack weapons, threatening safety in space."