[So Jongseop's Political Analysis] Yoon Seok-yeol's Appointment Keywords: 兩韓 (Han Deok-su · Han Dong-hoon)

'Economic' and 'Situational' Justifications for Direct Confrontation Policy
Strong Confrontation Likely to Continue Until 2024 General Election

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Greetings are messages. The message revealed through the appointment of 16 ministerial candidates by President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol is clear. It is about the economy and law enforcement. This is symbolized by the two Hans: Han Duck-soo, the Prime Minister candidate, and Han Dong-hoon, the Minister of Justice candidate.

President-elect Yoon, who views the core of governance as the issue of livelihood, has formed an economic team composed of economic bureaucrats. This is the so-called revival of the ‘Mofia’ (a portmanteau of MOF, the English abbreviation for the Ministry of Finance, and mafia). Centered around candidate Han Duck-soo are Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Choo Kyung-ho and Presidential Chief of Staff Kim Dae-ki. It is unprecedented for economic bureaucrats to occupy positions from Prime Minister candidate to Presidential Chief of Staff. This also indicates that President-elect Yoon anticipates a challenging economic situation ahead. In fact, global economic uncertainty is increasing due to the worldwide trend of tightening monetary policies and the geopolitical shifts caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

On the other side of the ‘economy’ is ‘law enforcement.’ This is why candidate Han Dong-hoon is drawing attention. He is a recognized close aide of President-elect Yoon both inside and outside the prosecution. His nomination as Minister of Justice, rather than as Seoul Central District Prosecutor General or Prosecutor General, does not diminish his symbolic significance. On the contrary, it can be seen as even stronger. He can influence the prosecution by utilizing personnel and budgetary authority. With the regular prosecution personnel reshuffle in July, it is highly likely that those aligned with Yoon Suk-yeol and Han Dong-hoon will occupy key prosecutorial positions. It is obvious where the swords wielded by those well-versed in special investigations will be directed. Even if the so-called ‘Prosecution Reform’ bill passes, the Minister of Justice can activate a standing special prosecutor.

The emergence of the so-called ‘Two Hans system’ of Han Duck-soo and Han Dong-hoon appears to be the result of President-elect Yoon choosing a ‘direct confrontation’ approach considering the unfavorable parliamentary landscape. Since the ‘minority government’ structure is expected to continue until the 2024 general election, it is analyzed that he judged that he must not lose ground. The Democratic Party, which lost the presidential election by a margin of 0.73%, is not expected to easily cooperate in state affairs, so he chose to hold a tight grip.

Therefore, regardless of the passage of the ‘Prosecution Reform’ bill, it is expected that the political situation will continue to be a strong confrontation for a considerable period. The 2024 general election will be the first watershed. The clash between the old and new powers revealed during the transition of government is also expected to continue. Attention is focused on how President-elect Yoon will respond going forward with the keywords ‘economy’ and ‘law enforcement.’