[Opinion] The Solution for 1st Generation New Towns is 'Digital Twin'

The first-generation new towns are no longer new. They have aged. Houses are worn out, pipes are rusted, and windows do not open properly. Children get annoyed by noise between floors. Due to a lack of parking spaces, people circle around the complexes on their way home from work. Parents who have to send their children to school worry about "watching out for cars." It takes a long walk to dispose of trash. Even though they try to separate waste themselves, it is not easy. This is the state of a city built 30 years ago. There are few interesting spaces that can attract the millennial generation. Perhaps that is why, on weekends, children leave this city in search of fun places.

The first-generation new towns must be changed. They need to be transformed into urban spaces where people want to come. They must be created as innovative spaces that can accommodate future changes. How should this be done? It is relatively easy to create nothing, like the third-generation new towns. Because you just build according to the plan. However, the first-generation new towns are different. Many people live their daily lives there, and many structures are intertwined, so changes must be made considering the current situation. It is by no means an easy task. Moreover, once started, it cannot be undone.

Recently, there has been a big controversy around relaxing the floor area ratio (FAR) to 500% for the first-generation new towns. The controversy over the shortage of housing supply has ultimately led to policies to increase the FAR. The problem is that the appropriate level of FAR is unknown. The ripple effects of increasing the FAR on urban spaces are also unknown. There are no answers as to whether urban infrastructure such as water and sewage systems can handle it, whether a pleasant residential environment can be maintained, or whether the necessary housing supply can be sufficiently secured. It is difficult to even estimate the direction for improving the first-generation new towns to adapt to a future world where drones fly, robots move, and autonomous vehicles operate. This is because it is not easy to simultaneously connect ground, underground, and aerial spaces.

Then, how about using Digital Twin technology as an alternative? Digital Twin is a technology that creates an identical object in virtual space to the real one and conducts various simulation verifications. Currently, a twin city exactly like the first-generation new town is created in virtual space, and various simulations are conducted by applying what we want to implement. After checking the results from this, they can be applied to various policies for improving the first-generation new towns.

People live in Bundang. Bundang Twin exists in virtual space. The floor area ratio is raised to 500% in Bundang Twin, and its relationship with nearby complexes is examined. Traffic is also checked. The capacity of water and sewage systems is evaluated. Various housing layouts are arranged. Then it turns out that it blocks the neighboring house. Complaints seem likely. The FAR is lowered to 300% and examined again. Such experiments are difficult in reality but are fully possible in the Bundang Twin in virtual space. Digital Twin technology can be utilized not only for the first-generation new towns but also for various housing supply policies.

The first-generation new towns hold significant meaning in the history of urban development in Korea. Due to chronic housing shortages, apartment prices soared to 32.3% (38% in Seoul) in 1990. The murderous housing prices threatened the lives of urban workers themselves. To resolve housing price anxiety and expedite housing supply for the common people, the government announced the "Construction of 2 million houses: construction of 5 new towns" plan. Thus, the first-generation new towns were born. 292,000 houses (housing approximately 1.17 million people) were supplied. This was a massive supply amount corresponding to 33% of the metropolitan area supply (900,000 houses). Afterward, the housing market in Seoul and the metropolitan area stabilized.

Thirty years have passed. Housing prices are unstable again. How many more houses can be supplied through the restructuring of the first-generation new towns, and what is the limit? I actively propose the use of Digital Twin technology.

Kim Deok-rye, Director of Policy Research, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements