President-elect Yoon "Will Do Well," Surpasses 50% After 4 Weeks... Reflecting 'Expectations' After Passing Low Point [Realmeter]

'Will Do Well' 50.4% vs 'Will Not Do Well' 45.3%
Positive-Negative Difference 5.1%p, Outside Margin of Error Again After 4 Weeks

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] A public opinion poll showed that positive expectations that President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol will 'do well' in his future governance have exceeded 50% for the first time in four weeks.

On the 11th, Realmeter, a polling agency, conducted a survey from the 4th to the 8th of this month targeting 2,518 voters aged 18 and over nationwide, asking about the "prospects for President-elect Yoon's governance after inauguration." The proportion of positive responses saying he would "do well" was 50.4% (30.3% said "very well," 20.2% said "generally well"), which is 1.6 percentage points higher than the previous survey conducted in the fifth week of March. This is the first time in four weeks that positive responses have exceeded 50% since the second week of March, when it recorded 52.7%.

On the other hand, the proportion of negative responses saying he would "not do well" was 45.3% (33.7% said "very poorly," 11.5% said "generally poorly"), which is 2.3 percentage points lower than the previous survey. The gap between positive and negative expectations was 5.1 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error (±2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). Those who answered "don't know" accounted for 4.3%.

The increase in positive responses regarding President-elect Yoon's governance prospects is interpreted as reflecting a growing "sense of expectation" for the next government as the members of the new administration's cabinet were announced.

A Realmeter official explained, "Compared to previous administrations, expectations for governance are relatively low due to the lack of changes in the political landscape since the last presidential election and the absence of a vision or content that would generate high expectations for President-elect Yoon. However, since the transition committee has recently begun to reveal the direction of governance, the low point has passed, and expectations are gradually rising, which is reflected in this survey."

He added, "Whether the expectations will continue to materialize as the members of the new government’s cabinet are announced, or whether unexpected issues related to morality will emerge and cause damage, will be gauged in the early stages of the administration."

By region, positive responses decreased in Incheon and Gyeonggi (down 2.4 percentage points, from 48.1% to 45.7%), but increased in Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong (up 10.9 percentage points, from 44.5% to 55.4%), Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (up 5.3 percentage points, from 56.3% to 61.6%), Daegu and Gyeongbuk (up 3.9 percentage points, from 63.8% to 67.7%), and Seoul (up 1.8 percentage points, from 50.7% to 52.5%).

Regarding party support, the gap between the People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea was only 0.5 percentage points, showing a close race within the margin of error for four consecutive weeks.

The People Power Party remained unchanged at 40.4% compared to the previous survey (fifth week of March), while the Democratic Party of Korea dropped 1.3 percentage points to 39.9%. The People’s Party stood at 6.3%, and the Justice Party at 3.7%.

President Moon Jae-in’s governance evaluation showed a 1.6 percentage point decrease in positive ratings to 43.2%, and a 1.2 percentage point increase in negative ratings to 53.2% compared to the previous survey.

The response rate for this survey was 6.0%, conducted via automated calls with 97% mobile and 3% landline, using a random digit dialing method based on a randomly generated sampling frame. Statistical adjustments were made using rim weighting by gender, age group, and region based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of January 2022. The sampling error is ±2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission or the Realmeter website.