'Mass Civilian Massacre' Russia, Will It Eventually Use Chemical Weapons? [Reading Science]

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] An analysis has emerged suggesting that Russia, which has been confirmed to have committed large-scale civilian massacres, may use chemical weapons in Ukraine to break the will of resistance.

On the 6th, the international academic journal Nature reported this by citing statements from scientists well-versed in Russia's chemical weapons situation. According to the report, although chemical weapons are banned worldwide, suspicions persist that the Russian government has used chemical weapons until recently. A representative case is the British government's claim that Russia used the chemical weapon Novichok to poison Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy living in the UK, in 2018. Alexei Navalny, the leader of Russia's opposition, was also poisoned with a Novichok-type substance in 2020. French disarmament consultant Ralph Trapp pointed out that "these two incidents raised fundamental questions about whether the chemical weapons programs developed during the Soviet era were truly dismantled." Russia signed the international Chemical Weapons Convention in 2017, pledging to destroy all stockpiled chemical weapons, but it may not have fulfilled this commitment.

Russia is suspected of supporting or assisting the development of chemical weapons used by government forces in the Syrian civil war, ongoing since 2011. In this regard, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), a UN-affiliated body based in The Hague, Netherlands, adopted a resolution in November 2016 criticizing the Syrian government forces for massacring civilians using chemical weapons. In fact, in August 2013, Syrian government forces shocked the world by dropping chemical weapons near Damascus in rebel-held areas. It is estimated that 1,400 people died in that attack. Analyses suggest there have been at least 350 chemical weapon attacks during the civil war.

Experts believe that Russian forces may use chemical weapons in Ukrainian cities to terrorize civilians and induce panic. Although the Ukrainian military is equipped with protective gear, rendering such use ineffective against them, chemical weapons could be used to instill fear among civilians and force them to abandon resistance. Paul Rogers, a peace studies professor at the University of Bradford in the UK, explained, "If chemical weapons are used against military targets, the opposing side will immediately don biochemical protective gear. The main reason for using chemical weapons is to instill fear and cause panic among people."

Experts are concerned that if Russia deploys chlorine gas, which is heavier than air, it could suffocate large numbers of civilians who have taken shelter underground to avoid bombings. Additionally, nerve agents like sarin are deadly and spread rapidly, so they could be used to clear out secured target areas after an attack. However, chemical weapons similar to Novichok require extensive decontamination after use, making their deployment less likely.

Experts argue that on-site inspections by the OPCW are necessary to prevent Russia from using chemical weapons. For example, Russia has subtly threatened that it could use chemical weapons, claiming that Ukraine is preparing to use them. Last month, Russia alleged that the US and Ukraine have operated 30 laboratories across Ukraine conducting pathogen research, and that the Ukrainian government is destroying related facilities and materials to cover this up.

Alastair Hay, a professor at the University of Leeds in the UK, explained, "If Russia suspects Ukraine possesses chemical weapons and genuinely does not want to use chemical weapons, it should officially request the OPCW to conduct on-site inspections."