[AKyeong Poll] Song Young-gil vs Oh Se-hoon Most Likely One-on-One Contest... 'Oh Se-hoon Wins Beyond Margin of Error'

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] In a hypothetical matchup for the June 1 local elections, current Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon is found to lead former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil beyond the margin of error.

According to a poll conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Asia Economy from June 3 to 4, surveying 1,015 men and women aged 18 and older residing in Seoul (90% mobile, 10% landline, automated response), Mayor Oh received 50.4% support, ahead of former leader Song who received 36.7%. Those supporting other candidates accounted for 5.6%, while 3.2% had no preferred candidate and 4.1% were unsure, making the undecided group 7.3%.

Mayor Oh led former leader Song in most age groups and regions except for those in their 40s. However, regional differences were observed. In the Gangbuk West and Gangbuk East areas, the support gap was under 10 percentage points, at 9.8 and 9.5 points respectively. In contrast, the Gangnam West area showed a gap of 15.2 points, and Gangnam East had a notable 21.2 points difference.

By age group, among 18 to 29-year-olds, Mayor Oh led with 55.5% compared to Song’s 33.0%. In their 30s, Mayor Oh received 44.1% support while Song remained at 37.3%. Conversely, in their 40s, Song led with 43.7% support over Mayor Oh’s 38.9%. For those in their 50s, Mayor Oh had 48.1% and Song 41.5%, while among those aged 60 and above, Mayor Oh led with 59.6% to Song’s 31.2%.

▶How was the survey conducted? = This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Realmeter over two days, June 4 and 5. Calls were attempted to 80,938 eligible voters aged 18 and older residing in Seoul, with a final 1,015 respondents completing the survey, yielding a response rate of 1.3%. The survey used an automated response method with 90% mobile and 10% landline calls, employing random digit dialing from a randomly generated sampling frame. Statistical adjustments were made based on gender, age group, and region according to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety’s resident registration population statistics as of the end of March 2022, using rim weighting. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Realmeter website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.