[Weekly Outlook] Focus on Trade Balance and Producer Prices Amid Prolonged Ukraine Crisis

KCS Announces Preliminary Export-Import Status for 1st-20th
BOK Releases Producer Price Index and Financial Stability Report
KOSTAT Publishes '2021 Social Indicators of Korea'

Reference photo_Pyeongtaek Port container. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Sejong=Reporter Dongwoo Lee] This week (March 21-25), data such as 'Export and Import Status' and 'February Producer Price Index,' which reveal the scale of the trade balance, will be announced. The 'Financial Stability Report,' which contains the scale of private sector debt, and 'Korea's Social Indicators,' which show the social conditions amid COVID-19, will also be released.

According to related ministries on the 20th, the Korea Customs Service will compile and announce the export and import status from March 1 to 20 on the 21st. The export and import status temporarily aggregates export and import amounts considering working days, allowing the scale of the domestic trade balance to be understood. Earlier, the export amount from March 1 to 10 was $18.7 billion, a 14.9% increase compared to the same period last year. However, imports increased by 15.3% to $20.1 billion during the same period, resulting in a trade deficit of about $1.4 billion. This was due to a sharp rise in energy prices such as international oil prices, with imports of crude oil (43.6%), gas (87.0%), and petroleum products (46.3%) significantly increasing.

The Bank of Korea will announce the 'February Producer Price Index' on the 23rd. The rise in raw material prices due to the Ukraine crisis has drawn attention to the upward trend in the producer price index. In January, the producer price index rose 0.9% compared to December last year due to increases in crude oil and other raw material prices. Given the prolonged Ukraine crisis, it is highly likely that the producer price index continued to rise in February.

The Bank of Korea will also release the 'Financial Stability Report (as of March)' on the 24th. This report contains the status and characteristics of credit (debt) in the private sector, including households and companies. According to the same report released in December last year, the ratio of private credit (sum of household and corporate debt in the financial flow table) to nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of the third quarter last year was about 219.9%. This is not only the highest since statistics began in 1975 but also 9.4 percentage points higher than a year earlier.

The Statistics Korea will also announce the '2021 Korea's Social Indicators' statistics on the 24th. Attention is focused on how much private debt, such as household credit, has increased since the third quarter of last year. Korea's Social Indicators is a compilation of statistics published in 2020-2021 that provide insights into Korean society. It shows changes in areas such as population and health, labor and leisure, income, consumption and assets, housing, and living environment.