Accurately Predicted Every Presidential Election from the 16th in 2002 to the 20th in 2022
On the 9th, the day of the 20th presidential election, at the Democratic Party's vote counting situation room set up in the National Assembly Members' Office Building, party leaders including Representative Song Young-gil and General Election Committee Chairman Lee Nak-yeon cheered as the exit poll results showed a narrow lead./Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@
[Asia Economy Intern Reporter Kang Woo-seok] The exit polls conducted by the three major broadcasters (KBS, MBC, SBS) for the 20th presidential election were once again accurate. Since their introduction in 1995, the accuracy rate for presidential elections has been 100%.
The exit polls announced by the three broadcasters immediately after the close of voting on the 9th predicted that Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, would receive 47.8% of the vote, while Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, would receive 48.4%. They expected Yoon to win by a narrow margin of about 0.6 percentage points.
The actual counting results were similar to the exit polls. Based on a 100% nationwide counting rate, candidate Lee received 47.83% (16,147,738 votes), and candidate Yoon received 48.56% (16,394,815 votes). The vote difference between the two candidates was 0.73 percentage points.
Former Dongyang University professor Jin Joong-kwon praised the exit poll results on the 10th on his Facebook, calling "exit polls both a science and an art."
This exit poll was conducted by the three broadcasters commissioning three institutions?Korea Research, Ipsos Korea, and Hankook Research?surveying about 73,000 voters at 330 polling stations nationwide. The confidence level was 95% with a margin of error of ±0.8 percentage points.
Early voting held on the 4th and 5th was also reflected in the exit polls. The three broadcasters stated that they conducted a survey of 10,000 voters including early voters and incorporated the results into the exit polls considering demographic characteristics.
The exit polls by the three broadcasters have maintained a 100% accuracy rate in predicting presidential election winners since their introduction in 1995. From the first exit poll in the 16th presidential election in 2002 predicting candidate Roh Moo-hyun to the 20th presidential election in 2022 predicting candidate Yoon Seok-youl, all winners were correctly forecasted.
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