Ukraine in Crisis, Secret Weapon: 'Open Source' Data? [Im Juhyung's Tech Talk]

'OSINT' Meaning Open Source Intelligence
Flood of Posts on SNS Since Russia's Invasion Began
Includes Smartphone Photos, Videos, and Civilian Satellite Images
Civilians Voluntarily Participate in Information Analysis
Russian Forces Defend by Cross-Checking 'Fake News'
Crucial for Future War Crime Investigations
US Time Magazine: "OSINT Is a Window Showing the Invasion to the World"

On the 1st (local time), a resident in Bucha, on the outskirts of Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, is looking at the wreckage of a destroyed Russian military vehicle. / Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Juhyung] On the 24th of last month (local time), President Vladimir Putin signed a large-scale military invasion operation by Russian forces against Ukraine. Tens of thousands of soldiers, thousands of tanks and armored vehicles, as well as missiles and bombers were mobilized, and Ukraine, which possesses relatively weak military power compared to Russia, appeared to be in a precarious situation.

However, contrary to military experts' expectations, the Ukrainian forces put up fierce resistance in the first battle after the invasion began. The army, commanded on the front lines by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, maintained high morale, and the support and cooperation of the citizens were also strong.

But that is not all. The Ukrainian military has been using tactics where they ambush Russian tank units advancing along their routes, launch sudden attacks with anti-tank weapons and fighter jets, and then retreat. OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) has played a significant role in this. OSINT refers to publicly available smartphone videos, big data, satellite images, and other materials. Although it may seem unrelated to war on the surface, this information has been a tremendous help to Ukraine's resistance. From Ukraine's perspective, it can be interpreted as a powerful weapon.

OSINT is an abbreviation for Open Source Intelligence. Originally, it referred to a collection of various materials partially disclosed to the public by government intelligence agencies like the National Intelligence Service or private intelligence companies.

The 'Panama Papers' case, in which journalists worldwide collaborated to investigate tax havens based on materials leaked from a law firm, is a representative example of OSINT. / Photo by Yonhap News

In the past, those who analyzed OSINT materials were mostly journalists working for media outlets or university professors. For example, the so-called 'Panama Papers' case in 2016, which uncovered a list of individuals secretly hiding assets in tax havens based on information leaked from a Panamanian law firm, is a representative example of OSINT analysis achieved through the collaboration of international journalists.

However, with the spread of the internet worldwide and especially the emergence of social networking services (SNS) activating the concept of 'online communities,' OSINT has become a field where many civilians participate together, not just a few experts. In the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, OSINT has become an 'unexpected variable.'

In modern warfare, intelligence gathering is extremely important. Thanks to technological advances, advanced countries' militaries deploy cutting-edge reconnaissance aircraft on the battlefield to gather valuable information and monitor enemy movements. For example, between December last year and January, when Russia amassed an army of about 100,000 to 130,000 troops near the Ukrainian border, US and UK 'RC-135' electronic reconnaissance aircraft were busy flying near the Black Sea collecting signal intelligence.

US President Joe Biden publicly revealed Russia's intentions to President Zelensky just before the war broke out, warning that "Russia's invasion is imminent." This was possible because the US Air Force's various reconnaissance aircraft, satellites collecting optical information, and high-altitude reconnaissance drones like the 'Global Hawk' detected Russian military intentions early.

Reconnaissance aircraft operated by the US Air Force and the Royal Air Force played a crucial role in intelligence gathering prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Photo shows the US Air Force's RC-135W electronic reconnaissance aircraft / Photo by Yonhap News

However, once actual combat occurs, it is almost impossible to deploy such expensive reconnaissance assets directly on the battlefield. If another country intervenes prematurely, it is impossible to predict how far the war might escalate.

Meanwhile, on the 24th of last month when the war broke out, OSINT netizens began to take action. In fact, their method of gathering information is very simple.

Many local residents take videos and photos with their smartphones of Russian soldiers moving, missiles flying, buildings devastated by bombings, and upload them to Twitter. Netizens only need to collect this data.

Additionally, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images from Earth observation satellites operated by the European Space Agency (ESA), as well as numerous photos of Ukraine taken by satellite cameras from other private satellite companies, have been uploaded in the dozens or hundreds. This vast amount of OSINT data has become a valuable clue that allows not only locals but also people outside Ukraine to understand the situation on the ground.

A convoy of Russian military transport trucks captured by a private satellite operation company. Satellite images provided by private companies were reportedly used effectively in the resistance of the Ukrainian military. / Photo by Internet homepage capture

OSINT is also being effectively used to defend against Russian fake news propaganda. The Russian military spread various fake news to confuse and demoralize the Ukrainian side, but netizens who collect and analyze OSINT reportedly blocked this fake news through a 'cross-verification' method.

Regarding this, the US magazine Time explained, "Open-source data has become a 'window' showing the Ukraine invasion to the world," adding, "Loosely connected groups of Twitter experts quickly verify the rapidly changing situation using videos, photos, and other data, which also helps defense analysis."

The Ukrainian military also decides tactics through OSINT. According to the British media outlet The Telegraph, the Ukrainian forces were able to identify in advance where the Russian military supply routes originated by receiving photographic information taken by private satellites.

Elliot Higgins, the founder of the private OSINT analysis group 'Bellingcat,' emphasized, "We will do our best to collect and document all war crimes occurring in this conflict." / Photo by Twitter Capture

The value of OSINT does not end there. When the war ends in the future, OSINT's role will become even more important. Among the OSINT posted on SNS currently are photos and videos of Russian missiles bombing civilian facilities and Russian troops unjustly attacking Ukrainian citizens. Such photos and videos could serve as decisive evidence when investigating Russian war crimes after the war.

Those voluntarily participating in OSINT analysis are also working to establish international judicial justice after the war ends.

Elliot Higgins, founder of the civilian OSINT analysis group 'Bellingcat' and operator of a related Twitter account, emphasized on his Twitter account on the 24th of last month, "We must do our utmost to ensure that all war crimes (by Russian forces) are thoroughly documented now and in the future," adding, "This evidence will be useful to international judicial bodies such as the International Criminal Court."