[Presidential Election D-1 Month Pledge Analysis⑤-Diplomacy & Security] "Through Dialogue" vs "By Force" Clearly Divided North Korea Nuclear Response

Lee "North Korea issue inherits Moon government... active mediator role"
Shim "Inter-Korean summit first, based on ROK-US summit"

Yoon "THAAD additional deployment negotiations follow reciprocity principle"
Ahn "Pursue ROK-US nuclear sharing agreement, strengthen forces including fighter jets"
All 4 candidates agree on troop reduction... differing views on volunteer military system etc.

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Although the ruling and opposition presidential candidates continue to present similar pledges, clear differences in views emerge regarding diplomacy and security. This starkly demonstrates how significant foreign and security issues are in shaping ideological and party choices in Korean society. However, perspectives on China appear to be converging as the Beijing Winter Olympics controversy is expected to influence voter sentiment.

The differences in views are also evident on the North Korean issue. As North Korea breaks its moratorium on nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM, long-range ballistic missiles with a range of over 5,500 km), the crisis is escalating, but the approaches to resolving the issue differ.

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Sim Sang-jung, the Justice Party presidential candidate, emphasize ‘dialogue’ regarding North Korea and related issues. Lee announced his unification and foreign policy pledges, stating, "I will succeed the Moon Jae-in administration and play a more proactive and independent role as a mediator and problem solver." He also proposed that the best solution to the North Korean nuclear issue is conditional sanctions relief and phased simultaneous actions. Sim expressed her willingness to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue through dialogue, stating in an early-month four-party presidential debate, "If I become president, I will first hold a South-North summit and then a South Korea-U.S. summit based on that."

Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, and Ahn Cheol-soo, the People’s Party presidential candidate, emphasize a foreign policy based on ‘strength.’ Despite criticism of being hawkish, Yoon prominently pledged to establish preemptive strike capabilities known as the kill chain, including additional deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on the Korean Peninsula. This means detecting signs of North Korean provocations and striking first. However, Yoon also left open the possibility of dialogue with North Korea. He presented ‘Complete, Verifiable, and Irreversible Denuclearization (CVID)’ as the goal, proposing a denuclearization roadmap and negotiations based on reciprocity. He also pledged to establish liaison offices among South Korea, North Korea, and the U.S. to facilitate this.

Ahn pledged to pursue a ‘South Korea-U.S. nuclear sharing agreement’ regarding the North Korean nuclear issue. He also revealed plans to strengthen military power by phasing out outdated fighter jets and introducing state-of-the-art aircraft. Regarding dialogue with North Korea, he stated that while dialogue should be conducted with ‘national affection,’ any military provocations must be met with principled and strong responses in solidarity with the international community.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Recently, the China issue has become a hot topic. Following controversies such as the hanbok appearance at the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony and biased rulings in short track speed skating events, domestic public opinion on China has sharply deteriorated, prompting presidential candidates to criticize China. Lee expressed, "I cannot contain my disappointment and anger" regarding the biased rulings. Yoon said, "I deeply empathize with and console our athletes’ anger and frustration." Ahn lamented, "The sweat and effort of our athletes were destroyed by China’s dirty rulings," while Sim stated, "This Olympics must be more fair and just than any other." With the Winter Olympics taking place in the midst of the presidential campaign, candidates appear highly conscious of anti-China sentiment.

However, examining their statements on China policy before the Olympics reveals differences in approach among the candidates. For example, Lee intends to uphold the Moon Jae-in administration’s ‘three no’s’ stance?opposing additional THAAD deployment, the trilateral military alliance among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, and participation in the U.S. missile defense system. Lee emphasizes ‘pragmatism’ in relations with the U.S. In contrast, Yoon openly rejects the ‘three no’s’ stance by pledging additional THAAD deployment. The People Power Party especially differentiated itself by labeling the Moon administration’s diplomacy with China as ‘submissive diplomacy.’

Ahn also openly advocates abolishing the ‘three no’s’ stance. Regarding the South Korea-U.S. relationship, he stated, "I believe the South Korea-U.S. alliance is the most important," signaling a U.S.-centered diplomacy. However, he also noted, "The core of the new Cold War is the science and technology hegemony war," and added, "Some are optimistic that the U.S. will win, but I do not necessarily think so," emphasizing the need to pay attention to China’s rise. While expressing skepticism about THAAD’s practicality, he took a reserved stance but said, "China is not a consideration" in this decision.

Regarding the military service system, there is general consensus on reducing troop numbers, but differences appear in the operation of a volunteer military system.

Lee plans to reduce conscripts to 150,000 by 2027 and supplement the force with 50,000 military officials possessing expertise in administration, logistics, and education through recruitment. Ahn also promised a ‘quasi-volunteer system’ by reducing conscripts to 150,000 and maintaining about 75,000 professional non-commissioned officers. Sim proposed a mixed conscription and volunteer system by 2029, operating 12-month conscripts alongside professional soldiers serving four years, and abolishing conscription from 2030 while maintaining a force of 300,000. Additionally, Sim pledged to introduce a military registration obligation system similar to that of the U.S.

In contrast, Yoon expressed skepticism about the volunteer system, saying, "In the long term, maybe in about 20 years, we should move to a volunteer system." However, he also announced plans to promote ‘Defense Innovation 4.0’ to transition from a troop-centered military to an unmanned combat system by 2040. Yoon also pledged to raise soldiers’ monthly pay to 2 million won.