Daily New Cases Surpass 20,000, Rise to 30,000 Again After Three Days
Omicron Variant Becomes Dominant Strain Amid Lunar New Year Travel Surge
Spread Faster Than Government Forecast... Considering 'Transition to Seasonal Flu'
On the 28th, one day before the Lunar New Year holiday, people are lining up for testing at the COVID-19 screening clinic at Gangseo-gu Public Health Center in Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@
[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] The number of new COVID-19 cases in South Korea has surpassed 30,000 per day. It took only three days after exceeding 20,000 for the first time on the 2nd, and ten days since the first 10,000 cases on the 26th of last month. It has been 66 days since the first Omicron variant infection was confirmed on December 1st last year.
According to the quarantine authorities on the 5th, as of midnight, the number of new COVID-19 cases was counted at 36,362. The number of new cases first exceeded 10,000 on the 26th of last month (13,009 cases), then rose to over 20,000 on the 2nd of this month (20,269 cases) within a week, and continued to set daily records, surpassing 30,000 again in just three days.
The increase in cases has also accelerated. While the number of new cases had been increasing by about 1,000 to 2,000 per day over the past week, it surged by 4,536 cases on the 3rd and by 8,919 cases on the 4th alone. This sharp rise is attributed to increased nationwide movement during the Lunar New Year holiday period and a higher number of COVID-19 tests conducted.
In particular, as the Omicron variant, which is significantly more infectious than previous COVID-19 variants, has become the dominant strain, the number of confirmed cases is rising faster than government predictions. Initially, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) projected that if the transmission rate of the Omicron variant was 2.5 times that of Delta, the number of new daily cases would reach 15,200 to 21,300 by mid-month and 31,800 to 52,200 by the end of the month; however, current figures have already exceeded these estimates.
Accordingly, from January 20, 2020, when the first COVID-19 case was confirmed in South Korea, until November 30, 2021, approximately 22 months later, the cumulative number of confirmed cases was 447,218. However, in just over two months since the first Omicron infection was confirmed on December 1st last year, the cumulative number of cases has already surged to 523,800.
Nonetheless, despite the daily record-high number of new cases, the number of critically ill patients and deaths is showing a declining trend. The proportion of elderly patients, who are at high risk of worsening to critical condition, has decreased from 16.6% to 8.0% over the past four weeks, a significant drop compared to the period around mid-December last year when the elderly accounted for over 30% of confirmed cases.
The number of critically ill patients also fell from a weekly daily average of 932 to 369 during the same period, and deaths decreased from 361 to 183, showing a slowing trend. An analysis by the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 24th of last month of 9,860 domestic Omicron cases showed that the fatality rate of Omicron was 0.16%, about one-fifth that of Delta.
In response, the quarantine authorities have also mentioned the possibility of COVID-19 becoming an 'endemic' disease and transitioning into a 'seasonal flu.'
Lee Ki-il, the 1st Controller of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH), announced the extension of social distancing measures for two more weeks yesterday, stating, "Even if the number of confirmed cases increases, if the severity and fatality rates remain stable and the healthcare system has sufficient capacity, we will gradually lift quarantine restrictions and attempt to restore daily life." The CDSCH also stated, "We will actively consider the possibility of transitioning to a routine quarantine and healthcare system similar to seasonal influenza by evaluating healthcare system capacity, final severity rates, and fatality rates."
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