"COVID-19, 'Endemicization' and the Recovery of Daily Life Are Merely a Rosy Illusion" [Reading Science]

Oxford University Professor: "Despite Omicron, the likelihood of toxicity weakening with repeated mutations is low"
"If a powerful variant emerges, regional balance can be disrupted at any time"
"The challenge is to achieve vaccine distribution balance between regions and focus on quarantine efforts to prevent large-scale spread"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] There has been a warning that the hope of the COVID-19 pandemic ending and becoming endemic?a state where the virus is locally persistent but less severe?triggered by the highly contagious but less toxic Omicron variant is nothing more than a 'rose-colored illusion.'

Aris Kazourakis, a virology professor at the University of Oxford, argued in an article published on the 25th in the international academic journal 'Nature' that "the term endemic does not mean that COVID-19 will naturally come to an end."

Professor Kazourakis particularly cautioned against the widespread 'rose-colored misunderstanding' that the virus will evolve to become less toxic. Some viruses tend to evolve with increasing fatality rates. In the case of the COVID-19 virus, most infections occur before severe symptoms develop. Considering that the Alpha and Delta variants, which emerged after the virus was first discovered in Wuhan, China, in November 2019, recorded higher fatality rates than before, the 'rose-colored outlook' remains unverified and is merely a 'misunderstanding.' In fact, the so-called Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, which spread worldwide, had a higher fatality rate during its second wave than the first.

Moreover, it is highly uncertain whether endemicity will actually be achieved. Endemic means that the infection rate of a disease neither spikes nor drops but remains at a steady level. In other words, a certain percentage of the population is infected every year, with common cold, malaria, and polio being representative examples.

The problem is that even if this happens, the lethality of the disease remains. For example, malaria, a representative endemic disease, caused over 600,000 deaths in 2020, and tuberculosis infected 10 million people, resulting in 1.5 million deaths. Particularly, global health authorities have vaguely mentioned endemicity without addressing how long it will take for infection rates to stabilize, or what the incidence, transmission, and mortality rates will be in an endemic state, nor the size and target of vulnerable populations. Therefore, Professor Kazourakis pointed out that even if COVID-19 becomes endemic, it does not mean humanity has tamed the virus and returned to normal life.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Furthermore, if a powerful variant emerges, the endemic state can be broken at any time, reverting to an epidemic or pandemic. Since vaccination rates, quarantine, and isolation policies vary by country, even if a specific region succeeds in becoming endemic, the emergence of a new, more potent variant with different characteristics can change the situation at any time.

Accordingly, Professor Kazourakis emphasized the need to abandon baseless optimism and set realistic prevention goals considering the possibility of the virus producing new variants. He also pointed out that weapons to fight the virus?such as vaccines, antiviral treatments, testing kits, mask-wearing, and social distancing?must be used efficiently, and vaccine distribution should be strengthened globally, especially focusing on underdeveloped countries to achieve balanced vaccination rates.

Professor Kazourakis said, "The best way to prevent the emergence of more lethal and contagious variants is to stop large-scale virus spread through balanced vaccine distribution and investment in public health capacity," adding, "The more the virus replicates, the higher the chance of stronger variants emerging." The idea that endemicity will naturally occur and weaken the virus is wrong and dangerous. He warned that such thinking could lead to unpredictable large-scale outbreaks, causing humanity to suffer from COVID-19 for a longer time.