[War & Business] Olympic Truce

On the 18th (local time), Russian armored vehicle units moving along a highway in Crimea, Ukraine. Crimea (Ukraine) = AP · Yonhap News Photo by AP

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As concerns over Russia's invasion of Ukraine spread, the 'Olympic Truce' has emerged as a key variable in estimating the timing of the outbreak of war. The Olympic Truce refers to the international convention of not engaging in warfare during the Olympic Games.

The reason why there is speculation that Russia will not attack Ukraine from February 4, when the Beijing Winter Olympics begin, until the closing ceremony on the 20th, considering its relationship with China, is due to this. The Chinese government already submitted a resolution for the Olympic Truce to the United Nations General Assembly on February 2, and it was adopted by the UN.

This convention dates back to the ancient Olympic tradition of Greece in the 8th century BC. At that time, it is said that any Greek city-state that invaded another during the Olympic period would be attacked collectively by all Greek city-states. Accordingly, all city-states would cease hostile actions during the Olympic period.

Today, there is no treaty with as strong binding power as back then. The current Olympic Truce resolution has been in effect since 1993 and is only a recommendation. However, since this Olympics is held in China, an important partner of Russia in its confrontation with the West including the US and Europe, it is expected that Russia will fully consider China's position.

Moreover, Russia has a history of breaking the truce resolution proposed by China during the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics when it invaded Georgia. Therefore, the prevailing analysis is that Russia will not commit another diplomatic faux pas against China. On the day of the opening, Russian President Vladimir Putin is also scheduled to visit China and hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, so the expectation is high that the Olympic Truce will be observed this time.

The US government also seems to have taken Russia's stance into account and has highlighted the 2008 invasion again. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken sarcastically remarked in an interview, "Russia invaded Georgia during the 2008 Beijing Olympics."

In fact, considering military issues, it would be difficult for Russia to invade Ukraine after February. Currently, the demand for heating natural gas that Russia supplies to Europe sharply decreases from March, and the frozen regions of Ukraine begin to thaw from March, turning into mud, which would reduce the mobility of key forces such as tanks and armored vehicles.

Therefore, if Russia respects the Olympic Truce resolution, it is expected to focus more on diplomatic solutions rather than invasion. The world is watching closely to see if the Olympic Games, a festival of peace, can truly prevent an imminent war.