Is Targeting 2030 a Limit... Yoon's Rally Comes to a Halt

Recovery Achieved but Peak Level Not Yet Reached
Spouse Controversy and Ahn Cheol-soo's Approval Ratings Also Variables

Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, is attending and speaking at a meeting held at the Social Workers Association in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul on the 18th. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, who succeeded in regaining support through his ‘youth appeal,’ is now focusing on preparing the ‘next card.’ Although he has closed the gap with Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, to a neck-and-neck level in various opinion polls, there are still many hurdles to overcome before achieving a ‘stable lead.’ The recent controversy over recordings involving Kim Geon-hee could also negatively impact the support he has barely regained, adding to the sense of crisis.

On the 18th, Candidate Yoon will meet with social workers responsible for child and adolescent welfare, small business owners hit hard by the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, and sports facility workers on the front lines. As his approval ratings have begun to recover, he appears to be emphasizing the ‘accompanying the vulnerable’ message that he stressed from the early stages of forming his election campaign committee.

Whether this approach will lead to further increases in support remains to be seen. Before the conflict with Representative Lee Jun-seok, Yoon’s approval ratings generally stayed in the 40% range. To regain that level, an increase of more than 10 percentage points from the current ratings is necessary. However, Yoon is currently in a close race with Candidate Lee, maintaining mid-30% support for the second consecutive week. In a multi-candidate poll conducted by Kantar Korea on the 15th and 16th (nationwide, 1,010 respondents aged 18 and over, with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points), Yoon received 32.8%, closely competing with Lee’s 31.7% within the margin of error. In a similar multi-candidate poll by Embrain Public (nationwide, 1,006 respondents aged 18 and over, 95% confidence level, ±3.1 percentage points margin of error), Yoon had 35.9%, while Lee had 33.4%.

There are some results showing Yoon’s lead outside the margin of error, but these are not dominant. Especially considering that Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People’s Party, has maintained support in the mid-teens percentage range after a rise, it is likely to slow Yoon’s recovery in approval ratings. Simply relying on the ‘generation encirclement theory’ or the ‘return’ of the 2030 generation has limitations in reversing the situation. Negative factors such as the ‘spouse controversy’ are also likely to affect future support. The controversy, which began with reports of the recordings, has continued as suspicions have spread to connections with shamans.