[Biden's First Year in Office] Korea Policy Enters Strategic Patience Phase

[Asia Economy Reporters Inho Yoo, Jieun Lee, and Military Specialist Nakgyu Yang] Over the one year since U.S. President Joe Biden's inauguration, evaluations suggest there have been no significant changes in diplomacy, security, and defense areas such as North Korea policy, the South Korea-U.S. alliance, and wartime operational control compared to the previous Donald Trump administration. However, with the Biden administration placing its highest priority on strengthening coalitions to contain China during the remainder of its term, the Korean Peninsula issue is inevitably being pushed to the back burner, posing a challenge for the new government.

◆ South Korea-U.S. Alliance Pushed Aside by China Containment = Recently, there have been criticisms that the ties between South Korea and the U.S. are weakening. These claims gain credibility amid issues such as the failure to extend the Korea-U.S. currency swap and the vacancy of the U.S. Ambassador to South Korea position for about a year since the Biden administration took office.

The currency swap, a symbol of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, ended at the end of last year. The termination of the currency swap, which had been in place since October 2008, is known to be due to the U.S. refusal to extend it.

Meanwhile, President Biden has not nominated a U.S. Ambassador to South Korea. This contrasts with the confirmation of Ram Emanuel as U.S. Ambassador to Japan, whose nomination passed the U.S. Senate on the 18th of last month after being nominated in August last year.

In diplomatic circles, some analysts argue that South Korea's passive stance in the U.S.'s 'China containment' front is influencing this situation. Professor Hyunwook Kim of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy said, "The U.S. is focusing all its foreign policy on containing China, but the problem lies in the differing threat perceptions of China between South Korea and the U.S.," adding, "South Korea and the U.S. need to put more effort into strengthening relations in diplomacy, security, and economic issues."

◆ North Korea Policy: ‘Strategic Patience’ = The Biden administration has spent the past year simply observing North Korea. It has been waiting for Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, to take substantive steps toward denuclearization. As a result, there seemed to be neither progress nor deterioration.

However, with North Korea beginning military demonstrations emphasizing strengthening its defense capabilities since the new year, concerns are rising that North Korea-U.S. relations may re-enter a tense cycle of provocations and sanctions.

Some suggest that the Biden administration has entered a phase of strategic patience, pressuring North Korea with sanctions while waiting for change.

Professor Mujin Yang of the University of North Korean Studies said, "Over the past year, when meeting with our government, the emphasis was on dialogue, while within the U.S., the focus was on pressuring the North Korean regime, resulting in a confused stance on North Korea," and predicted, "Given the additional sanctions following North Korea's military provocations this year, it appears that the Biden administration's 'Strategic Patience Season 2' will continue."

◆ Challenges in Wartime Operational Control Transfer = The Biden administration has put considerable effort into defense matters with South Korea. It wants to move away from the Trump era, which pressured a fivefold increase in defense costs and hinted at the possibility of withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea to manipulate the alliance, and instead open a new era of cooperation.

However, discord remains between South Korea and the U.S. regarding the transfer of wartime operational control. Since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August last year, the Biden administration has been focusing its energy on building a front against China. To maintain this front, U.S. troops stationed in South Korea are strategically necessary. This explains the quiet U.S. response to South Korea's position that the verification of the second phase of full operational capability (FOC) of the future combined command, a condition for the transfer of wartime operational control, should be conducted during the first half of this year's South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises.

Professor Jaeseok Park of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies' Graduate School of International and Area Studies said, "From the U.S. perspective, there is a perception that holding control over the Korean Peninsula during wartime is essential for security," adding, "The Biden administration will not easily proceed with the transfer of wartime operational control."