[Global Focus] Intensifying US-China-Russia Rivalry Surrounding Resource-Rich Kazakhstan

Report on Strategic Resources such as Oil, Natural Gas, and Uranium
Anti-Russian Sentiment Spreads in Kazakhstan Amid Russian Military Intervention
China, with Large-Scale Investment in Belt and Road, Watches Situation Closely

On the 5th (local time), large-scale protests broke out in Almaty, Kazakhstan's largest city, over soaring energy prices, with local police confronting the demonstrators. As of the 9th, 164 people have died in the protests, and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev declared a state of emergency until the 19th.
Almaty, Kazakhstan = EPA · Yonhap News
Photo by EPA · Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The protests in Kazakhstan, triggered by soaring inflation, have escalated into a large-scale political instability crisis and have led to Russian military intervention, drawing intense international attention. While the United States has openly criticized Russia's military involvement and the harsh crackdown on protesters, it is also reported that the Kazakh government is seeking an early withdrawal of Russian troops.

Kazakhstan traditionally holds various strategic resources such as oil and uranium and occupies a key strategic position in Central Asia, making it a focal point of conflicting interests among major powers. Following the United States and Russia, China, which has made large-scale investments through the Belt and Road Initiative (一帶一路, the overland and maritime Silk Road), is also closely monitoring the situation in Kazakhstan. There are concerns that the competition among the three countries?US, China, and Russia?will intensify further.

◇ "Russian troops to withdraw within a week" ... US also criticizes troop deployment

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

According to Russia's TASS news agency on the 10th (local time), the spokesperson office of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stated in a press release that "the unrest triggered by large-scale protests has been brought under control, and the Russian troops deployed to suppress the protests will withdraw within a week." The Russian troops were urgently deployed from the 6th following the announcement of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) peacekeeping forces, a security alliance of six former Soviet republics, to quell the unrest.

The statement is interpreted as an effort to urge the early withdrawal of Russian troops due to concerns over their prolonged presence. Already, there are worries both inside and outside Kazakhstan that Russia's military intervention will strengthen its influence in Kazakhstan. Maximilian Hess, a Central Asia expert at the US think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) in an interview, "Russian President Vladimir Putin argues in talks with the US and other Western countries that the deployment to Kazakhstan is a key justification for preventing chaos in the former Soviet region and will secure legitimacy for expanding their influence in the area."

Previously, President Putin stirred controversy by questioning Kazakhstan's status as an independent country in 2014, stating that it "never had the status of a state." Particularly, with reports that 164 people have died and about 6,000 have been detained during the harsh crackdown, anti-Russian sentiment within Kazakhstan is reportedly growing.

The US government has also openly criticized Russia's military dispatch and forced suppression. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview with CNN the day before, "The Kazakh government needs to provide a clear explanation for the necessity of inviting Russian-led security forces to resolve domestic unrest," and criticized, "Approving the targeted shooting of anti-government protesters is wrong and must be withdrawn."

◇ A treasure trove of strategic resources such as oil and uranium

The main reason the US and Russia, who have entered negotiations over the Ukraine crisis, are clashing again over the Kazakhstan issue is believed to be the intertwined interests related to vast resources.

Kazakhstan is a major oil-producing country with abundant natural gas and coal, as well as rich mineral resources such as uranium and chromium. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Kazakhstan's oil reserves are about 30 billion barrels, ranking 12th in the world. In terms of uranium, it holds 817,000 tons, making it the world's second-largest reserve after Australia (1,243,000 tons).

According to the New York Times (NYT), since 2014, major US oil companies Chevron and ExxonMobil have been investing in Kazakhstan's largest oil field, Tengiz. They have established and operate a joint venture called Tengizchevroil with local companies such as Kazakhstan's state-owned gas company KazMunayGas, reportedly investing about $37 billion (approximately 44.4 trillion KRW).

Russia imports most of the uranium used for nuclear power generation and nuclear weapons production from Kazakhstan. According to the BBC, Russia is Kazakhstan's largest trading partner, accounting for 39% of total exports, with most trade between the two countries involving uranium. Since the Soviet era, Kazakhstan has been a major uranium production site for Russia, and nuclear test sites closed after the Soviet Union's dissolution still remain around the city of Kurchatov in eastern Kazakhstan.

◇ China, which has made large-scale investments through the Belt and Road Initiative, also closely monitors the situation

China, which is currently conducting large-scale infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, is also closely monitoring the situation in Kazakhstan.

According to CNBC, Kazakhstan is a key gateway region for China's Belt and Road Initiative, with $24.5 billion invested in 56 projects since 2005, including roads, railways, and gas pipelines. In 2013, China also purchased an 8.33% stake in Kazakhstan's Kashagan oil field for $5 billion.

The Chinese government is reportedly planning to strengthen cooperation with Middle Eastern countries in response to concerns over energy supply disruptions caused by the Kazakhstan crisis. According to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP), China plans to hold discussions on energy supply issues with foreign ministers from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain over five days from today until the 14th. As concerns grow over the operation of oil and gas pipelines passing through Kazakhstan into China, talks with Middle Eastern countries are expected to continue to secure alternative supply volumes, SCMP reported.

The Chinese government is also reportedly concerned about potential security instability in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region adjacent to Kazakhstan. In particular, the Kazakh ethnic group, a major ethnicity in Kazakhstan, has a significant population in Xinjiang and is expected to be directly affected by political instability in Kazakhstan.

According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, about 1.25 million Kazakhs live in China, accounting for approximately 7% of the population in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, making them the third-largest ethnic group there after the Uygurs (46%) and Han Chinese (39%). The Chinese state-run Global Times reported, "The Kazakhstan region is strategically important for the economic development and security of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region," and emphasized, "We must promote stability in Kazakhstan and prevent external forces from disrupting peace in Central Asia."