[Viewpoint] South Korea at a Crossroads of Choice and the March Presidential Election

Lee Yong-jun, Former Ambassador for North Korean Nuclear Affairs and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs

With the presidential election just two months away, policy debates have largely disappeared except for a few issues directly related to the daily lives of the people, leaving only trivial slanders and mudslinging. Serious discussions or policy confrontations are absent not only on major and difficult issues such as economic reform, education reform, and labor reform that will determine the nation's future, but also on diplomatic and security matters critical to the country's fate, beyond mere formal rhetoric.

In the new year, the Korean Peninsula and East Asia are expected to face the greatest international challenges since the Cold War era, which will have a profound impact on the future of the peninsula. Especially amid the US-China hegemonic rivalry, where the United States and its allies are strengthening military containment and economic decoupling against China, a wrong choice by the new Korean government could bring unprecedented trials to South Korea’s security and economy.

The major changes expected to unfold in the Korean Peninsula and East Asia this year can be summarized in three points.

First, amid North Korea’s continued enhancement of its nuclear and missile military capabilities and worsening economic difficulties, North Korea is expected to resume strong external provocations against South Korea and the international community after the South Korean presidential election to break the status quo.

Second, as part of the US-China hegemonic rivalry, the US’s decoupling from China will enter its main track, signaling red alerts for the Chinese economy and making the slowdown of China’s national power growth visible. This is also a warning sign for the South Korean economy, which is closely linked to China’s economy.

Third, military tensions between the US camp and China in the disputed South China Sea and Taiwan Strait are escalating the possibility of physical clashes, with Japan expected to expand its military role by riding on this situation.

Despite North Korea’s high-intensity provocations such as long-range missile test launches and resumption of nuclear tests to attract US attention, unless North Korea makes a genuine decision for denuclearization, it seems unlikely that the US will yield and agree to lift sanctions against North Korea.

The Biden administration, facing declining approval ratings ahead of the midterm elections, may take tougher measures against North Korea. The direction of the South Korean government’s response will be determined by the March presidential election. The new South Korean government’s policy direction toward North Korea will have a profound impact on the overall US policy toward the Korean Peninsula and the future of the US-ROK alliance.

For the next 10 to 20 years, the US’s greatest foreign concern will be the US-China hegemonic rivalry, so all other international issues, including the North Korean nuclear problem, are likely to be subordinated to the interests of the US-China confrontation.

Despite China’s backlash and opposition from some sectors of the US economy, the US is pushing forward with its decoupling policy against China, including controlling advanced technology supply chains, and is strengthening joint naval operations with allies such as the UK, Japan, and Australia in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait to block China’s military expansion.

Less than a year after the Biden administration took office, all US allies worldwide are participating in collective diplomatic, military, and economic actions against China. Australia, once a representative pro-China country in the Asia-Pacific region, now stands at the forefront of the anti-China front, and Germany, once a symbol of pro-China forces in Europe, is also turning away. Japan, pursuing rearmament, has openly declared its intention to participate in case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Among the US allies, South Korea is now the only country refusing to join the anti-China front. The fierce US-China hegemonic rivalry, progressing as a global bloc confrontation, demands a critical choice from South Korea, which is deeply rooted in the Chinese camp under the pretext of “peace with the US, economic ties with China” (Anmi Gyeongjung). South Korea must now make a choice, and the March presidential election is the first gateway.