[Global Focus] Japan Accelerates Rearmament Amid US-China Conflict...The Crumbling 'Exclusive Defense' Principle

Kishida Mentions 'Strike Capability' in Parliament for the First Time
Defense Spending Principle of 1% of GDP Broken...1.1% Expected
Japan's Ruling LDP Emphasizes Military Cooperation with Taiwan...Tensions with China Intensify

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As the United States strengthens its containment of China in the Indo-Pacific region, Japan is accelerating its rearmament under the pretext of the U.S. demand for defense cost-sharing, prompting backlash from neighboring countries. Military tensions are also escalating as Russia deployed new missiles on the Kuril Islands shortly after news emerged that the Japanese government is considering extending missile ranges.

Nevertheless, the Japanese government is preparing the largest defense budget in history and is being criticized for undermining the principle of exclusive self-defense (counterattack only in case of foreign attack) stipulated in its pacifist constitution. Centered on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Japan has also expressed intentions to strengthen security cooperation with Taiwan and actively intervene in the event of a Taiwan contingency, raising concerns about further diplomatic friction with China.

◇ Russian backlash to Japan's missile range extension: "Missile deployment on Kuril Islands"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

According to Japan's Jiji Press on the 6th, on the 2nd, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the installation of Bastion coastal defense missiles with a maximum range of 500 km on Matua Island in the Kuril Islands, which border Japan. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that it deployed Bastion missiles and additional troops to Matua Island via transport ships and established a new military headquarters, vehicle hangars, and other facilities.

The missile deployment by Russia is presumed to be a countermeasure against Japan's Ministry of Defense plan to extend missile ranges. Earlier, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported, citing a Japanese Ministry of Defense official, that "by 2025, the range of the Type 12 coastal defense guided missile (SSM), which previously had a range of around 200 km, will be extended to over 1,000 km, with test launches completed." It is also known that by 2028, the missile will be deployed not only on land but also on ships and fighter jets.

If Japan's missile range extends to 1,000 km, most of the Korean Peninsula, the eastern coastal areas including Shanghai in China, as well as Russia's Kuril Islands, Sakhalin Island, and the Primorsky Krai region will all fall within the operational range of the Japan Self-Defense Forces. Consequently, Japan is being criticized for undermining the exclusive self-defense principle stipulated in its pacifist constitution.

Despite anticipated backlash from neighboring countries such as Russia and China, the Japanese government reportedly plans to proceed with the missile range extension. On the 27th of last month, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida emphasized at a review ceremony held at the Ground Self-Defense Force base in Nerima Ward, Tokyo, that "all options, including possessing the capability to strike enemy bases, will be considered without exclusion to strengthen necessary defense capabilities."

Furthermore, in a policy speech at the extraordinary Diet session opened on the 6th of this month, Prime Minister Kishida stressed the necessity of possessing "enemy base strike capabilities." Since the LDP presidential election in September, Kishida has consistently advocated for the need for enemy base strike capabilities, but this is the first time he has officially mentioned it in the Diet. Prime Minister Fumio stated, "To protect the lives and livelihoods of the people, we will realistically consider all options, including the so-called enemy base strike capabilities, without exclusion, and fundamentally strengthen defense capabilities with a sense of urgency," adding, "We will formulate a new National Security Strategy, Defense Guidelines, and Mid-Term Defense Program over approximately one year."

◇ Rapidly increasing defense budget... Largest supplementary budget in history

Japan's defense budget is also rapidly increasing. The supplementary budget bill passed by the Japanese Cabinet on the 26th of last month includes 773.8 billion yen (approximately 8.1435 trillion KRW) for defense. Combined with the existing defense budget of 5.3422 trillion yen, the total is expected to exceed 6 trillion yen for the first time, reaching 6.116 trillion yen.

Japan's defense budget had stagnated from the global financial crisis in 2008 until 2016 but has surged sharply since 2017, surpassing 5 trillion yen. According to the Japanese Ministry of Defense, the government's defense budget request for 2022 is expected to break records again at 5.485 trillion yen.

Japan's principle of keeping defense spending below 1% of GDP has also been broken. Since former Prime Minister Takeo Miki set the standard in 1976 to prevent militarism by limiting defense spending to less than 1% of GDP, successive Japanese governments have adhered to this, but this year, defense spending is already known to have exceeded 1%.

Including the supplementary budget, Japan's defense spending this year is expected to exceed 6 trillion yen, reaching 1.1% of GDP. Last year, the defense spending ratio to GDP was 0.95%. The ruling LDP also pledged in the late October House of Representatives election to raise defense spending to "over 2% of GDP," indicating that defense spending is expected to increase even faster in the future.

The Japanese government is known to have the backing of the United States for this defense budget increase. According to Kyodo News, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a telephone conversation with U.S. President Joe Biden on the 5th of last month, the day after his inauguration, becoming the first foreign leader to do so, during which President Biden reportedly requested an increase in defense spending. Kyodo News reported, "The Biden administration is expecting new burdens from Japan in the security field with China containment in mind," and "If the first face-to-face summit is realized, the increase in defense spending is expected to be a major agenda." Prime Minister Kishida is reportedly planning to visit the U.S. in January next year to hold his first face-to-face summit with President Biden.

◇ Economic and security consultations between ruling parties of Japan and Taiwan... Deep involvement in cross-strait relations

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan has expressed its intention to actively engage in Taiwan's defense issues alongside increasing defense spending. According to Japan's Sankei Shimbun, Masahisa Sato, chairman of the LDP's Foreign Affairs Division, and Akimasa Ishikawa, chairman of the Economic and Industrial Division, announced that they plan to hold a video conference with lawmakers from Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) within this month. Following the "2+2" meeting between foreign and defense affairs lawmakers held in August, the LDP and DPP plan to hold another "2+2" meeting between foreign and industrial affairs lawmakers.

Since the Japanese government severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1972 based on the Chinese government's "One China" principle, ministerial-level discussions have been impossible, so the party-to-party talks between ruling party lawmakers are effectively equivalent to ministerial-level meetings, Sankei Shimbun reported. Strong opposition from the Chinese government is expected accordingly.

In this meeting, the LDP and DPP plan to discuss security issues such as China's recent military threats to Taiwan, as well as Taiwan's comprehensive and progressive membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

The LDP has continuously expressed its intention to actively intervene in the event of a Taiwan contingency. On the 1st, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who leads the largest faction within the LDP, delivered a video lecture at a forum hosted by a Taiwanese national policy research institute, stating, "A contingency in Taiwan would be a contingency for the U.S.-Japan alliance, so we will not stand by," a remark that greatly provoked China. Following Abe's remarks, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Hideo Tarumi, the Japanese ambassador to China, to protest, further intensifying diplomatic friction.