[Lee·Yoon Pledge Comparative Analysis] Yoon, North Korea's 'Pre-Denuclearization' and Japan's 'Normal Shuttle Diplomacy' Restoration

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] Every presidential election, the conservative and progressive camps sharply clash over foreign and security policies. This is because foreign and security policies are key keywords that define the regime's distinctiveness.

In this presidential election as well, the positions of Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, sharply diverge on major diplomatic issues such as North Korean denuclearization, the declaration of the end of the war, US-China relations, and Korea-Japan relations.

Summarizing the policy direction in the foreign and security fields that Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, revealed at the foreign press club meeting last month, it can be condensed into the slogan of “confident diplomacy” with the principle of “denuclearization first, declaration of the end of the war later.”

These contents sufficiently reflect the demands of the conservative camp disappointed with the Moon Jae-in administration's foreign and security policies.

◇ “Close alignment with the US, prioritizing North Korean denuclearization” = Yoon believes that the central axis of the Korean Peninsula's foreign and security policy should be “close alignment with the US.”

He envisions promoting a comprehensive strategic alliance between South Korea and the US, actively participating in the US-led reorganization of the international order to take the initiative on Korean Peninsula issues.

Regarding North Korea, he maintains the position that it is difficult to achieve denuclearization if South Korea is led by North Korea. Yoon has shown strong rejection by describing the current administration's inter-Korean relations as a “master-servant relationship.”

He also opposes the current administration's push for a declaration of the end of the war. At the foreign press club meeting, he expressed concern that “if a political declaration of the end of the war is made first, the armistice management system or the United Nations Command could be easily neutralized, and domestically, it could lead to public opinion favoring the reduction of US troops stationed in Korea.”

He further stated, “If North Korea's denuclearization irreversibly progresses and a cooperative relationship is established, a peace agreement and declaration of the end of the war can certainly proceed together,” clearly opposing a declaration of the end of the war without prior measures. This clarified the principle of “denuclearization first, declaration of the end of the war later.”

A key foreign and security official from Yoon's campaign said, “There needs to be a discussion first on whether pursuing a declaration of the end of the war is appropriate and whether it can serve as an important means to induce North Korea's substantive denuclearization,” adding, “In a situation where North Korea's willingness to denuclearize is unclear, Yoon's idea is to first achieve strong security and robust national defense before playing the role of mediator.”

◇ Separation of politics and economy in China relations, suggesting the need for change in Korea-Japan relations = Yoon holds the view that in the era of US-China hegemony, the relationship with China should separate politics and economy. Based on the principles of “mutual respect” and “separation of politics and economy,” he plans to expand Korea-China cooperation centered on economy, public health, climate change, and cultural exchange.

However, he has been criticized for the contradiction of clearly stating his intention to actively participate in the US's foreign policy focused on containing China while simultaneously aiming to strengthen relations with China. Critics question whether diplomacy separating politics and economy with China is possible in a situation where “economic security” is being strengthened, with strong demands from the US for changes to the “security reliance on the US, economic reliance on China” (Anmi Gyeongjung) line.

Regarding the improvement of Korea-Japan relations, he proposes restoring “shuttle diplomacy” between leaders. Yoon stated, “We will seek a comprehensive solution covering issues such as historical problems, economic cooperation, and security cooperation,” suggesting a pragmatic approach.

However, there is no concrete strategy yet to resolve the worst Korea-Japan relations. Lee Myeon-woo, deputy director of the Sejong Institute, said, “Considering Yoon's willingness to improve Korea-Japan relations, the possibility of the two countries approaching each other may slightly increase,” but also assessed, “However, since the Japanese House of Councillors election is in July next year, it will be difficult for any new Korean president to bring immediate changes.”