Next Year's Memory Semiconductor Market Growth Forecast Slashed from 18.4% to 8.5%

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] A global semiconductor supply and demand trend research organization has forecast that the growth rate of the memory semiconductor market, dominated by South Korean companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, will be significantly lower next year than initially expected. Although expectations for a recovery in the memory semiconductor market, which faced worsening conditions in the second half of this year, have recently revived, the situation does not appear to be one to be fully reassured about.

According to the industry on the 1st, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) recently released a report predicting the memory semiconductor market growth rate for next year at 8.5%. This is more than a 50% reduction from the initially forecasted growth rate of 18.4% in August. The expected market size for memory semiconductors next year was also revised downward from $190.769 billion (approximately 227.0151 trillion KRW) to $171.682 billion.

WSTS did not specify the reasons for this forecast, but it appears to consider the fact that the memory semiconductor boom that began earlier this year has declined faster than expected and that DRAM prices showed a downward trend in the second half of the year. However, although DRAM prices have been falling for several months since August, recent market forecasts suggest that the decline in spot prices has slowed and that prices will rise again after the first quarter of next year, increasing expectations for a recovery in the memory market.

Due to the adjustment in the memory semiconductor growth rate, WSTS reduced the overall semiconductor market growth forecast for next year from 10.1% to 8.8%. The expected global semiconductor sales for next year are projected at $601.49 billion. WSTS analyzed that "sensor and logic semiconductors will record double-digit growth rates next year, leading the overall semiconductor market growth, and other semiconductor products will also grow." By product, sensor semiconductors (11.3%) are expected to have the highest growth rate next year, followed by logic semiconductors (11.1%), analog semiconductors (8.8%), and memory semiconductors (8.5%).

WSTS forecasted that this year's total semiconductor market sales will grow 25.6% from the previous year to $552.961 billion. This is expected to be the highest growth rate since 2010 (31.8%), according to WSTS. In particular, memory semiconductors are analyzed to record the highest growth rate of 34.6%, reaching $158.161 billion and accounting for 28.6% of total semiconductor sales.

WSTS is a global semiconductor supply and demand trend research organization with over 40 member companies, including major semiconductor firms worldwide such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, U.S. Micron, Japan's Sony and Toshiba, and Taiwan's TSMC.