[AKyeong Poll] 'Voter Sentiment Unclear'... Frontline of Next Year's Presidential Election: 20s and 30s Generations

Undecided Voters in Their 20s, One-Third Leaning Toward Floating Votes
Uncertain Voting Sentiment Among Shaking 30s
In Approval Ratings, Yoon Seok-yeol Leads Lee Jae-myung by 8.2%

[Asia Economy Reporters Naju-seok and Gu Chae-eun] In a public opinion poll conducted over two days from the 20th to the 21st, Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate, maintained his 'first place' position outside the margin of error by defeating Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, by a margin of 8.2 percentage points.

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, are attending an event held on the 22nd at Grand Walkerhill Seoul in Gwangjin-gu, Seoul, and exchanging greetings. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

The gap is the same as in the previous poll (conducted on the 6th-7th), which reflected the 'convention effect' immediately after Yoon was selected as the main candidate. Although Lee has shown strong determination for reform through declarations such as 'I will make it Lee Jae-myung's Democratic Party' and the reorganization of the election committee, it appears that this has not offset the public opinion favoring regime change.

In the presidential candidate support survey, Yoon received 42.7%, while Lee received 34.4%. For now, Yoon has maintained his lead since being confirmed as the People Power Party candidate.

However, experts predict that the election race will gradually narrow. Park Si-young, CEO of WinG Korea Consulting, said, "The weak support base for Yoon tends to support him not because they like him or think he is good, but because they dislike the Democratic Party. Therefore, if there are disappointing factors about the candidate, support could fluctuate," adding, "The gap is expected to gradually narrow."

◆The undecided 20s= Both ruling and opposition parties are focusing on the voting intentions of the 20s and 30s generations, which are considered the turning point for next year's victory. The 20s clearly showed an undecided pattern in both the previous and current surveys. The proportion of respondents in their 20s who supported other candidates besides the five major presidential candidates, or answered none or don't know, was 32.8% in the previous survey and 32.4% in the current one. Nearly one-third of all voters in their 20s are hesitant to choose.

This shows a clear difference from other age groups. Only 13.9% of those in their 30s, 13.6% in their 40s, 7.6% in their 50s, and 5.3% in their 60s were undecided voters. This trend in public opinion primarily seems to reflect a lack of confidence among voters in their 20s toward Yoon. In fact, in a survey asking about preference for regime continuation by the Democratic Party or regime change by the People Power Party in the next presidential election, those in their 20s overwhelmingly voiced for regime change. Only 23% of respondents in their 20s agreed with regime continuation, while 48.4% wanted regime change. On the other hand, in terms of support, Yoon received only 31% support from the 20s, and Lee received 21%, similar to the regime continuation sentiment.

◆The puzzling 30s mindset= In the 30s, while the undecided group decreased and more people confirmed their preferred candidate, the pattern is very confusing. The undecided rate among those in their 30s was 26.1% in the previous survey but dropped to 13.9% in the current one. With the undecided group narrowing, 39.1% of those in their 30s supported Yoon, and 36.4% supported Lee.

The 30s represent the most fiercely contested front in generational opinion polls. Yoon led by 9 percentage points in the 20s, Lee led by 20.7 percentage points in the 40s, Yoon led by 10.2 percentage points in the 50s, and Yoon led by 29 percentage points in the 60s and above. Each generation has a clearly dominant candidate. However, in the 30s, the support gap was only 2.7 percentage points, showing a close race.

What draws attention is that political attitudes among the 30s vary depending on the question. When asked about party support, 40.9% of those in their 30s said they support the Democratic Party, significantly ahead of the 33.3% who support the People Power Party. Conversely, signals in the opposite direction were also detected. 38% hoped for regime continuation, while 44.6% wanted regime change. The results differ depending on whether the question is about party support, desire for regime change, or candidate support, indicating that the 30s do not point in a single direction.

▶How the survey was conducted

This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy to WinG Korea Consulting and conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and over from the 20th to the 21st, with 1,025 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.5%. The survey method was 100% mobile ARS using virtual phone numbers. The sample was extracted with weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the WinG Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.