[AKYUNG Poll] Yoon Leads Lee in Both Presidential Election Support and Winning Probability

Presidential Candidate Support: Yoon Seok-yeol 42.7% vs Lee Jae-myung 34.4%
Election Probability: Yoon Seok-yeol 48.5% vs Lee Jae-myung 37.7%

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate, surpassed Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, by a margin beyond the margin of error in both the multi-candidate race and the electability survey.

In the multi-candidate support survey involving five presidential candidates from each party, Yoon recorded 42.7%, beating Lee, who had 34.4%, by 8.3 percentage points. Compared to the previous survey (June 6-7), Yoon's support rose by 1.3 percentage points, and Lee's by 1.2 percentage points.

By age group, Yoon received strong support from those in their 50s (47.6%) and 60s and older (58.0%), while Lee led among those in their 40s (49.4%). Among those in their 20s, 22.0% said they had no preferred candidate. Regionally, except for the Honam area where 60.8% supported Lee, Yoon led in Seoul (41.3%), Gyeonggi·Incheon (41.2%), Daejeon·Sejong·Chungcheong (42.2%), Daegu·Gyeongbuk (55.8%), Busan·Ulsan·Gyeongnam (52.0%), and Gangwon·Jeju (52.1%).

When asked who has the highest 'possibility' of ultimately winning the presidency regardless of candidate support, Yoon recorded 48.5%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous survey, while Lee dropped 1.0 percentage point to 37.7%, widening the gap between the two candidates from 8.2 to 10.8 percentage points.

Among those in their 20s, only 31.0% supported Yoon, but 44.0% predicted his electability. This was followed by 50s (50.7%) and 60s and older (61.0%), where Yoon's electability was also rated highly. In the 40s age group (52.5%), Lee's electability was rated higher. Regionally, more than half in Seoul (51.5%), Daegu·Gyeongbuk (61.9%), and Busan·Ulsan·Gyeongnam (56.9%) chose Yoon, while Lee was rated highest in Gwangju·Jeonbuk·Jeonnam (64.0%).

Third-party candidates other than the two showed very low electability, all below 3%. Support rates were Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party at 4.5%, Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party at 2.8%, and Kim Dong-yeon, preparatory committee chairman of the New Wave Party, at 2.1%, but their electability was only 2.3%, 1.5%, and 0.6%, respectively.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting targeting voters aged 18 and over nationwide on June 20-21, with 1,025 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.5%. The survey method was 100% mobile ARS using virtual phone numbers. The sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.