[AKyeong Poll] Lee Jae-myung 33.2% vs Yoon Seok-yeol 41.4%... Yoon Leads by 8.2%P After Confirmation

Yoon, Hong Supporters Absorption Shows Clear 'Convention Effect'
7 out of 10 Say "Will Continue Supporting Current Candidate"

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate (left), and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party candidate [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunju Lee] In a public opinion poll conducted after the candidate lineup for the 20th presidential election was finalized, Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate, led Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, by 8.2 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error.

Asia Economy commissioned Win-Gi Korea Consulting to conduct the poll over two days starting October 6, the day after the People Power Party presidential candidate was confirmed. Yoon received 41.4% support, ranking first. Next was Lee with 33.2%, Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party with 5.2%, Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party with 3.0%, and Kim Dong-yeon, the preparatory committee chairman of the New Wave Party, with 1.7%.

Yoon absorbed a significant portion of the support base of his intra-party rival, Hong Joon-pyo, resulting in a 16.1 percentage point increase in his support compared to the previous poll. This is a clear example of the so-called ‘convention effect.’ In the multi-candidate race conducted in the second week of October, Yoon’s support was 25.3%, and Hong’s was 18.3%. Regarding the likelihood of winning regardless of support, Yoon led with 46.9%, while Lee was 8.2 percentage points lower at 38.7%.

Meanwhile, when asked if they intended to continue supporting their current candidate, 7 out of 10 respondents (72.4%) said they would ‘continue to support.’ Those who said ‘it could change depending on the situation’ accounted for 27.6%. By candidate, 82.9% of Yoon’s supporters and 85.5% of Lee’s supporters said they would continue their support, with Lee’s supporters showing slightly stronger support intensity. Ahn’s supporters showed the lowest at 51.2%.

Responses indicating a desire for a regime change to the People Power Party accounted for 50.8%, a majority. This is a 0.9 percentage point decrease compared to the second week of October when the same survey was conducted. Conversely, those wanting the current ruling party, the Democratic Party, to retain power decreased by 5.7 percentage points to 34.8%. Regarding the controversies surrounding the Seongnam Daejang-dong development project and the allegations related to the prosecution’s complaint filing, which are considered weaknesses for both Lee and Yoon, a high percentage of respondents held each candidate responsible. 58.2% held Lee responsible, and 45.6% held Yoon responsible.

This survey was conducted via automated response on virtual mobile phone numbers with 100% coverage, targeting 1,005 voters aged 18 and over nationwide. The overall response rate was 6.7%. The sample was extracted using weighted values (cell weighting) by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-Gi Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.