[Akyeong Poll] Hypothetical Matchup Lee Jae-myung 40.6% vs Hong Joon-pyo 45.1%

Approval Rating Gap Narrows to 4.5%P Within Margin of Error
Lee's Daejangdong Allegation Explanation, Hong-Yoon Dispute Impact

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] In a hypothetical matchup between Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Hong Joon-pyo, the People Power Party lawmaker, Hong was found to be leading Lee within the margin of error. However, as Hong's approval rating declined and Lee's increased, the gap between the two candidates narrowed compared to the previous survey.

On the 26th, Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll from the 23rd to 24th targeting 1,023 voters nationwide aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). When asked about the 'hypothetical contest between candidate Lee and lawmaker Hong,' 45.1% supported Hong, surpassing Lee's 40.6%.

Compared to the previous survey conducted on the 9th-10th, Hong's support dropped by 2.9 percentage points, while Lee's rose by 2.0 percentage points. Consequently, the support gap between the two candidates narrowed from 9.4 percentage points in the previous survey to 4.5 percentage points, which is within the margin of error.

Hong's recent intensified disputes with former Prosecutor General Yoon ahead of the party candidate selection are analyzed as a negative factor. On the other hand, Lee's support appears to have recovered as he addressed the Daejang-dong development allegations during the National Assembly audit period.

By gender, Hong led among both men (Hong 49.3%, Lee 42.3%) and women (Hong 40.9%, Lee 38.9%).

By age group, Hong showed higher support among those in their 20s (52%), 30s (53.7%), and 60 and older (48.2%), while Lee led among those in their 40s (57.5%) and 50s (47.5%).

By region, Hong led in Seoul (50.1%), Daegu·Gyeongbuk (53.8%), and Busan·Ulsan·Gyeongnam (56.2%), whereas Lee held the advantage in Gyeonggi·Incheon (43.5%), Chungcheong region (46.7%), Honam region (60.9%), and Gangwon·Jeju (52.7%).

Among People Power Party supporters, 75.4% backed Hong, and among Democratic Party supporters, 77.4% supported Lee. Among undecided voters, Hong led with 40.9%, surpassing Lee's 32.2% outside the margin of error.

▶ How the survey was conducted

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting targeting voters aged 18 and older nationwide from the 23rd to 24th, with 1,024 respondents and an overall response rate of 6.6%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.