[AKYUNG Poll] Hypothetical Matchup Lee Jae-myung 43.7% vs Yoon Seok-youl 40.6%

Lee Leads Yoon Within Margin of Error
First Time Ahead Since August
Lee Also Dominates Among Undecided Voters

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeon Jinyoung] When the ruling party's presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and opposition candidate Yoon Seok-youl, former Prosecutor General, face off in a hypothetical match-up, Lee is shown to be ahead of Yoon within the margin of error.

On the 26th, Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll from the 23rd to 24th targeting 1,024 voters nationwide aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). When asked, "If the next presidential election is a contest between candidate Lee and former Prosecutor General Yoon, whom would you support?" Lee received 43.7%, while Yoon received 40.6%. The difference in support between the two candidates was 3.1 percentage points, with Lee leading within the margin of error. Other candidates accounted for 10.9%, and 4.8% responded with "none" or "don't know."

Compared to the previous poll conducted in the second week of October, Yoon's support dropped by 5.0 percentage points, while Lee's rose by 4.1 percentage points, marking the first time since August that Lee overtook Yoon and took the lead.

The support bases of the two candidates were clearly divided. Lee showed strength among men (47.7%), people in their 30s (46.5%) and 40s (59.7%). Regionally, his support was high in Gyeonggi and Incheon (47.1%), Honam region (64.0%), and Gangwon and Jeju (48.9%). Yoon led among those aged 60 and older (57.0%), Daegu-Gyeongbuk (53.3%), and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (44.6%).

Among the undecided voters, often called "swing voters," Lee also held an advantage. Lee's support was 41.5%, which was 17.4 percentage points higher than Yoon's 24.1%.

When voters were divided by party support, 83.7% of Democratic Party supporters said they backed Lee, while 75.1% of People Power Party supporters said they supported Yoon, showing a more distinct consolidation of Lee's support base.

This poll was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 23rd to 24th targeting voters aged 18 and older nationwide, with 1,024 respondents and an overall response rate of 6.6%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.