[Politics, That Day...] Moon Jae-in and Lee Jae-myung's 'Mapo Toast' Followed by Ahn Cheol-soo's 'Celebration' the Next Day

April 8, 2017, Democratic Party Presidential Primary Candidates' 'One Team' Unity Prayer Gathering
April 9 KBS·Yonhap News Poll, Ahn Cheol-soo 36.8%, Moon Jae-in 32.7%

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series planning corner that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

Democratic Party presidential candidates: Ahn Hee-jung (from the left), Governor of Chungnam, former leader Moon Jae-in, Mayor of Seongnam Lee Jae-myung, and Mayor of Goyang Choi Sung. Photo by Yonhap News

As the presidential election approaches and the party primary ends, ‘another battle’ begins. It is an intense political calculation between the winning side, hoping for a one team, and the losing side, still harboring grudges. Candidates who dreamed of winning the primary but were defeated need time to heal their emotional wounds and shock.

The winning side is inevitably anxious because they must quickly organize the central party’s election countermeasures committee. The time when the political value of the loser peaks is precisely this period. The winner must win the hearts of not only the candidates defeated in the primary but also the politicians and supporters who followed them to hope for victory in the general election.

If the grudges from the primary are not resolved, the general election race will be a thorny path. The loser is well aware of the winner’s intentions. However, simply raising the winner’s hand as if nothing happened is not politics. They must provide a justification for retreat to the lawmakers and supporters who backed them.

The problem is that as time passes, the ‘loser’s time’ can become a double-edged sword. If the time to raise the winner’s hand is too late, the image of refusing to accept the primary results may increase. This means the loser must not miss the appropriate timing to take action.

The behind-the-scenes political maneuvering between the primary winner and loser is common in both ruling and opposition parties. In the case of the Democratic Party, the primaries for the 2002, 2007, and 2012 presidential elections never ended smoothly. The 2017 primary was the least conflicted within the party.

At that time, Moon Jae-in, who was selected as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, arranged a time to declare a so-called ‘one team’ with other competitors. On April 8, 2017, at a pub in Mapo, Seoul, the four candidates who participated in the primary gathered and shared a harmony drink.

The four were the primary winner, Moon Jae-in, and the losers: then Chungnam Governor Ahn Hee-jung, Seongnam Mayor Lee Jae-myung, and Goyang Mayor Choi Sung. The toast scene between the primary winner and losers has a political imprinting effect. The purpose is to convey the image that they shook off the grudges left during the primary and united their strength for victory in the general election.

In fact, the scene of the four sharing drinks at the Mapo pub was extensively covered by major media.

Moon Jae-in was able to secure political momentum based on the Mapo harmony drink. An interesting point is the election situation at that time. When the four Democratic presidential contenders shared the harmony drink, it was only a month before the presidential election.

From the Democratic Party’s perspective, the situation was precarious. Moon Jae-in also found it difficult to be confident of winning. Although Moon Jae-in and the Democratic Party succeeded in receiving media spotlight based on the Mapo harmony drink political event on April 8, the public opinion poll results released the next day were shocking.

The toast was shared by the four Democratic primary candidates Moon Jae-in, Lee Jae-myung, Ahn Hee-jung, and Choi Sung, but the ‘political toast’ was held by Ahn Cheol-soo, the candidate of the People’s Party.

KBS, in collaboration with Yonhap News Agency, released the presidential election public opinion poll results on April 9, 2017.

Assuming the presidential election was a five-candidate race, the support rates were: Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party 36.8%, Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party 32.7%, Hong Joon-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party 6.5%, Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party 2.8%, and Yoo Seung-min of the Bareun Party 1.5%.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In the case of a two-candidate race, Ahn Cheol-soo led with 49.4% against Moon Jae-in’s 36.2%, a gap exceeding the margin of error.

The poll was conducted by KBS and Yonhap News Agency, commissioned to Korea Research Center, targeting 2,011 adult men and women aged 19 and over nationwide, from April 8 to 9, 2017, using a telephone interview method with wireless and wired RDD. For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

The poll results suggesting Moon Jae-in could lose the presidential election were sensitive to the Democratic Party. Does this mean Moon Jae-in’s political harmony drink had little effect? It is necessary to consider that political events or incidents are generally reflected in public opinion polls a few days later.

In the 2017 presidential election, although the Democratic Party formed a central party campaign close to one team, the situation was not easy. What if the political performance of sharing drinks in Mapo had not been achieved, or if the hearts of the primary losers and their supporters had not been won? Would the general election have been fought under much more difficult political circumstances?

The presidential candidate’s harmony drink showing ‘one team’ can be criticized as a political show, but even such political shows must be achieved as the fate of the primary winner within the party.