NAND Market Expected to Record Lowest Sales Growth in 3 Years Next Year... Supply > Demand

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] One of the representative memory semiconductors, NAND flash, is expected to record the lowest sales growth rate in three years next year. As supply exceeds demand, the average price of NAND is expected to fall by up to 18%.

According to market research firm TrendForce on the 21st, the sales growth rate of the NAND market next year is estimated to be 7.4%. The NAND market saw a 28.9% decrease in sales in 2019 but turned to an upward trend with a 26.0% increase last year, and the market is expected to grow by 21.9% this year as well. TrendForce stated, "Sales will grow, but it will record the lowest growth rate in three years."

(Source: TrendForce)

TrendForce analyzed that prices will fall as the supply growth rate of NAND surpasses the demand growth rate. The supply of bits in the NAND market next year is expected to increase by 31.8% compared to the previous year, while demand is expected to increase by 30.8%.

TrendForce predicted that the average selling price (ASP) of NAND flash will decline by about 0-5% in the fourth quarter of this year, followed by a drop of more than 18.0% next year, entering a price decline phase.

Earlier, TrendForce forecasted in a recent report that DRAM ASP will start to decline from the fourth quarter of this year and that the downward trend will intensify from the first half of next year. TrendForce added, "The overall ASP of DRAM products next year is expected to fall by 15-20% compared to the previous year," but also noted, "Uncertainty about DRAM price movements in the second half of the year still exists."