[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] 15 Years Since the First Nuclear Test... Has North Korea Succeeded in Developing Nuclear Weapons?

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Interest is growing in whether North Korea has succeeded in miniaturizing nuclear warheads 15 years after its first nuclear test. North Korea claims to have developed a cruise missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, but opinions on this matter remain divided.

At the 8th Workers' Party Congress last January, Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, ordered the "development of advanced nuclear tactical weapons, including medium- and long-range cruise missiles." This is why there is speculation that nuclear warhead deployment on cruise missiles is highly likely following intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

For now, our military assesses that North Korea is at a "technically feasible stage." When Lee Tae-gyu, a member of the People's Party, asked Defense Minister Suh Wook during a recent parliamentary inquiry whether North Korea could equip cruise missiles with small nuclear warheads, he replied, "It is at the limit, but we judge it to be possible."

If North Korea can mount small nuclear warheads on cruise missiles, they would become highly threatening weapons. Cruise missiles can be launched from ground-based transporter erector launchers (TELs) or naval vessels and can fly at "ultra-low altitudes." Due to the Earth's curvature, shadow zones are created where our military's radar waves cannot reach below certain altitudes. This means detection by radar can only occur shortly before the target is struck.

North Korea's ICBM atmospheric reentry technology is also considered to have advanced. The conservative U.S. think tank Heritage Foundation stated in its "2021 U.S. Military Strength Index" report that "the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assessed that North Korea's ICBM reentry vehicle would function properly if launched on a normal trajectory targeting the U.S. mainland."

ICBMs must withstand extreme heat of 6000 to 7000 degrees Celsius caused by speeds up to Mach 20 during atmospheric reentry to perform their functions properly. Although North Korea claims to have secured reentry technology, South Korean and U.S. authorities have withheld judgment due to the absence of live-range test launches.