[Fact Check] Is Voter Turnout Higher Among Older People and Lower Among Younger People in the Presidential Election?

2017 Presidential Election: Voter Turnout Lowest Among 80s, 20s Turnout Higher Than 30s and 40s

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] In Korean politics, a commonly accepted notion related to presidential election turnout is that the older the age group, the higher the turnout, and the younger the age group, the lower the turnout. Voter turnout by generation is one of the key variables that determine the outcome of presidential elections.

Political parties supported by relatively older generations expect higher turnout rates from those age groups, while parties supported by younger generations strive to increase turnout among their supporters. But is it really true that the older the age, the higher the presidential election turnout, and the younger the age, the lower the turnout?

The National Election Commission (NEC) releases analytical data on election results and voter turnout after presidential elections. The turnout analysis provided by the NEC is regarded as the most authoritative source.

Until the 18th presidential election in 2012, the NEC classified generations into their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, and 60 and above for analysis. The age group of 60 and above was combined and analyzed under the label “60 and above.”

[Image source=Yonhap News]

As birth rates decline and average life expectancy rises, the proportion of voters aged 60 and above in presidential elections is steadily increasing. Since the most recent presidential election in 2017, the NEC has subdivided the 60 and above age group into 60s, 70s, and 80 and above for analysis.

According to the NEC’s “19th Presidential Election Voter Turnout Analysis,” the age group with the highest turnout in the 2017 election was those in their 60s, reaching 84.1%. The 70s age group also had a high turnout at 81.8%.

An interesting point is that the oldest group, those aged 80 and above, had the lowest turnout among all age groups. Their turnout sharply dropped to 56.2%. This challenges the hypothesis that the older the age, the higher the turnout.

Then, is the claim that younger age groups have lower turnout in presidential elections true? In the 2017 election, the turnout for voters in their 20s was 76.1%, higher than the 30s at 74.2% and the 40s at 74.9%. This means that among those in their 20s to 40s, the 20s had the highest turnout.

Within the 20s, there is a difference in turnout between the early 20s (ages 20?24) and late 20s (ages 25?29). In the 2017 election, the early 20s group had a turnout of 77.1%, close to 80%, while the late 20s group had a relatively lower turnout of 74.9%.

The turnout of the early 20s group (77.1%) was higher than that of the early 30s group (74.3%).

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Is this characteristic unique to the 2017 election?

Similar results were observed in the 18th presidential election in 2012. According to the NEC’s “18th Presidential Election Voter Turnout Analysis,” the early 20s group had a turnout of 71.1%, while the early 30s group had 67.7%.

Why is the turnout lowest among the oldest group, those aged 80 and above, and why is the early 20s group’s turnout relatively high among the younger voters?

Is it because the elderly aged 80 and above have mobility difficulties that make voting participation relatively challenging? Or did the fact that many males in their early 20s were enlisted in the military contribute to increased voter participation? Various analyses are possible regarding the causes of turnout rates in specific generations, but the NEC’s published data does not include detailed reasons.

An NEC official stated, “We verify the factual data on voter turnout by age group, but we do not conduct separate interviews regarding voting participation by age group.” This means it is difficult to clearly explain why certain generations have higher or lower turnout rates.

Based on the NEC data, the 60s and 70s age groups have relatively higher turnout compared to other generations. However, the oldest group, those aged 80 and above, have the lowest turnout among all generations, and the youngest group, those in their 20s (especially the early 20s), cannot be said to have lower turnout than those in their 30s and 40s.

Therefore, the claim that the older the age, the higher the presidential election turnout, and the younger the age, the lower the turnout, is judged to be “half true.”