As the final stages of the presidential primary races for the Democratic Party and People Power Party unfold, interest in next year's Seoul mayoral and district mayoral elections is gradually increasing, focusing on whether Mayor Oh Se-hoon will be re-elected and how the Democratic Party, currently holding 24 district mayor positions, will perform in the elections.
[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jong-il] The presidential election season is approaching.
With the presidential election just over five months away, both ruling and opposition parties are busy preparing for their primary races. The Democratic Party of Korea is engaged in a fierce battle between Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung and former party leader Lee Nak-yeon for the presidential nomination.
Meanwhile, the People Power Party is also holding intense primaries to select four candidates out of eight preliminary candidates, including Yoon Seok-youl, Hong Joon-pyo, Yoo Seung-min, Hwang Kyo-ahn, Choi Jae-hyung, Won Hee-ryong, and Ahn Sang-soo.
Amid this, the "Seongnam-si Daejang-dong bomb," where developers who invested millions to tens of millions of won reaped development profits worth hundreds of billions to trillions of won, has exploded, increasing public interest in next year’s presidential election.
In particular, the public’s attention is focused on the ruling party’s presidential primary results as Yoo Dong-gyu, former Planning Director of Seongnam Urban Development Corporation and a key figure in the Daejang-dong development project initiated during the tenure of the leading Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung as Seongnam mayor, was arrested by prosecutors on the 3rd in connection with this case.
Alongside this, interest is already growing in the upcoming election for the 8th term of popularly elected Seoul mayor and 25 district heads, which will be held about three months after next year’s presidential election.
A Seoul city official recently asked a reporter, "I’m curious about how the next year’s Seoul mayoral election and the 25 district head elections will turn out," indicating the context.
Another official from a Seoul district office also said, "I’m curious about the results of the district head elections in next year’s local elections."
At this point, with just over eight months remaining, it is very difficult to predict the results of the Seoul mayoral and 25 district head elections. Above all, the outcome of next year’s presidential election is expected to have a significant impact on the local elections.
A Seoul city official predicted, "Next year’s Seoul mayoral and 25 district head elections will be greatly influenced by the presidential election."
Currently, the Seoul mayor is from the Democratic Party of Korea. The late Mayor Park Won-soon was elected in a 2011 by-election and succeeded in winning three terms, but after his passing, Mayor Oh Se-hoon made a comeback as Seoul mayor after 10 years through the April 7 by-election.
The People Power Party holds the mayoralty of Seoul and Seocho District, led by Mayor Oh and Seocho District Head Cho Eun-hee, while the Democratic Party holds 24 district head positions.
Therefore, there is considerable interest in whether Mayor Oh can survive the next election. He was elected with an unprecedented overwhelming number of votes in Seoul during the April 7 by-election, largely due to the Moon Jae-in administration’s failed real estate policies and the LH speculation scandal.
Because of this, if there are no major issues, the next Seoul mayoral election is not expected to be unfavorable for Mayor Oh. However, recently, Mayor Oh underwent a roughly 10-hour investigation by prosecutors over remarks related to the Pi City development permit during a previous Seoul mayoral candidate debate, and his future position may be determined depending on whether he is indicted.
Meanwhile, the 25 district head elections appear to be shrouded in uncertainty.
Since the local elections will be held about three months after the presidential election in June, the presidential election’s influence will be the greatest factor. The Democratic Party currently holds 24 district head positions, so there is interest in how many seats they will be able to secure next year.
The Democratic Party’s consecutive landslide victories in three elections (the 5th, 6th, and 7th popularly elected terms) have raised expectations about whether this momentum will continue into next year’s local elections.
Historically, in Seoul elections, the Democratic Party won the 1st (Mayor Jo Soon) and 2nd (Mayor Ko Gun) terms, while the New Korea Party won the 3rd (Mayor Lee Myung-bak) and 4th (Mayor Oh Se-hoon) terms. The Democratic Party then swept the 5th, 6th, and 7th terms, so there is interest in whether they will also win the 8th term.
A Seoul city official commented, "After the Democratic Party’s landslide victories in the 5th and 6th terms and the momentum from the 2018 North Korea-U.S. summit, which helped them sweep the 7th term local elections, it will be difficult for them to win the 8th term."
Meanwhile, some Democratic Party-affiliated Seoul district heads are currently under investigation by prosecutors and police due to unsavory incidents, which is seen as a disadvantage.
Additionally, news of 'gapjil district heads'?district heads who have conflicts with district office employees, including legal disputes with staff and executives?has been emerging, adding uncertainty to next year’s election outlook.
Accordingly, some Democratic Party-affiliated Seoul district heads have announced they will not run in next year’s elections, maintaining a tense atmosphere.
Perhaps due to these election prospects, the number of People Power Party candidates running for Seoul district head positions next year is reportedly increasing. Rumors are already circulating that a high-ranking Seoul city official will run for a district head position next year, which is interpreted as related to this trend.
A Seoul city official said, "It can be said that the elections for Seoul mayor, district heads, and city council members have already begun, and interest is expected to grow."
There is also curiosity about whether the so-called 'straight-ticket voting'?voting for the same party for mayor, district head, and city council members?will appear again next year. Additionally, voters may carefully consider the district heads’ performance and career during their terms when voting for district heads and city council members.
For these reasons, it can be said that the life-or-death battles between the ruling and opposition parties have already begun.
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