[AKYUNG Poll] Shifting Presidential Race... Tight Battle for 1st and 2nd Place in Ruling and Opposition Primaries

Lee Nak-yeon, Democratic Party Presidential Candidate Suitability Rises 9.6%p
Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon Neck and Neck with 0.2%p Difference
Yoon Seok-youl, Conservative Opposition Candidate Suitability Up 3.7%p
Hong Joon-pyo vs Yoon Seok-youl Within Margin of Error

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The battle for first and second place in the ruling and opposition parties' presidential race is unfolding with great excitement. The controversy over the Daejang-dong development during the Democratic Party primary and the withdrawal of former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun from the race have given strength to former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon, playing a last-minute variable role in the primary landscape that seemed to be leaning toward Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung. Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, who had been overshadowed by People Power Party lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo's 'Muya-hong' surge, showed resilience as the People Power Party support base rallied behind him.

◆ The Revival of Lee Nak-yeon: Will He Lead the Democratic Party to a Runoff? Compared to the previous poll conducted on the 11th-12th, this recent poll (25th-26th) showed a notable rise in former leader Lee's approval ratings. In the Democratic Party presidential candidate suitability survey, Lee's support increased by 9.6 percentage points over two weeks. As a result, Governor Lee's support stands at 33.7%, while former leader Lee's is 33.5%, a mere 0.2 percentage point difference.

The most significant change in the past two weeks was former Prime Minister Chung's withdrawal from the presidential race on the 13th. As a candidate representing Honam like former leader Lee, Chung's withdrawal has strongly benefited Lee. In the previous poll, Chung had recorded 6% support.

Additionally, the sharp decline in the undecided voter ratio also bolstered former leader Lee. The proportion of respondents who answered 'no preferred candidate' dropped from 20.3% in the previous survey to 14.2% in this one. It can be inferred that the public, who had been observing cautiously, consolidated their support behind former leader Lee in response to the Daejang-dong development-related allegations against Governor Lee during his tenure as mayor of Seongnam.

However, an interesting point is the trend among respondents identifying as Democratic Party supporters. Among Democratic supporters, 60.2% expressed support for Governor Lee, while 31.5% supported former leader Lee. Compared to the previous survey where 48.1% supported Governor Lee and 33.2% supported former leader Lee, Governor Lee's support among Democratic voters has become more concentrated over two weeks. This suggests that Democratic supporters have rallied around Governor Lee amid the threat posed by the Daejang-dong development controversy.

Out of the 11 primary contests, five remain in the Democratic Party primary, where Governor Lee currently leads with 53.0% of the vote. Former leader Lee remains at 34.5%. For former leader Lee, the challenge is to reduce Governor Lee's vote share below 50% before the primary concludes on the 10th of next month.

◆ The Secret to Yoon Seok-youl's Resilience: The People Power Party Support Base = The competition among opposition presidential candidates is fierce as former Prosecutor General Yoon shows a recovery trend against lawmaker Hong, who had been on a relentless rise.

In the poll asking about suitability as the conservative opposition presidential candidate, lawmaker Hong led with 33.5%. However, former Prosecutor General Yoon closely followed at 29.5%, within the margin of error. Over two weeks, Hong's support rose by only 0.7 percentage points, while Yoon's increased by 3.7 percentage points.

Notably, among respondents who identified as People Power Party supporters, Yoon's support stands at 54.0%, significantly ahead of Hong's 31.9%. In the previous survey (11th-12th), Yoon's support within the People Power Party base was 44.7%. After Chuseok, the public opinion within the People Power Party base appears to have consolidated around Yoon. Consequently, the gap between Yoon and Hong within the People Power Party base widened from 9.4 percentage points to 22.2 percentage points. Win-G Korea analyzed, "Controversies during the primary debates, including Hong's remarks related to the Cho Kuk investigation, seem to have influenced the consolidation of the People Power Party support base."

▶ How Was the Survey Conducted?

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy, commissioned to Win-G Korea Consulting, targeting nationwide voters aged 18 and over on the 25th-26th, with 1,016 respondents and an overall response rate of 8.4%. The survey method was 100% mobile ARS using virtual phone numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.